UL Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves
Final · ESPN+
19–17
At lock: projected ULM 18.32–34.22 ARST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 2:22 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 453164037
- Winner: Arkansas St (84%)
- Spread: ARST -14.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 53.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ULM vs ARST
The model
How this number was built
ULM 18.32–34.22 ARST · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexARST -10.3 vs ULM -24.1 · pred margin +15.4
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -0.2 vs -9.6 · model ARST 34.6–16.7 ULM
- Home field+3.0 pts to ARST
- RecordARST 4-5 · ULM 2-7
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ARST -14.5 / total 52.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULM | 6 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 19 |
| ARST | 7 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 7:226–0
Aidan Armenta 9 Yd Run (Abram Murray PAT blocked)
- TDQ1 1:136–7
Hunter Summers 17 Yd pass from Trey Owens (Clune Van Andel Kick)
- TDQ2 6:206–14
Timothy Carter 4 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)
- FGQ2 0:059–14
Abram Murray 23 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 9:3316–14
Aidan Armenta 2 Yd Run (Abram Murray Kick)
- FGQ4 5:4216–17
Clune Van Andel 41 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ4 1:4919–17
Abram Murray 40 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| ULM | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aidan Armenta #10 | 11/15 | 90 | 6.0 | 0 | 2 | 75.4 |
 Austin Carlisle #12 | 4/4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 | 0 | 48.2 |
| Team | 15/19 | 121 | 6.4 | 0 | 2 | -- |
Rushing
| ULM | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Austin Carlisle #12 | 19 | 111 | 5.8 | 0 | 25 |
 Don Chaney #20 | 12 | 68 | 5.7 | 0 | 36 |
 Bryson Roland #25 | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 0 | 41 |
Aidan Armenta #10 | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 2 | 18 |
 Marcellus Jackson #1 | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 14 |
 Jaiden Tucker #82 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
 Derrick Jameson #3 | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
Team | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 49 | 268 | 5.5 | 2 | 41 |
Receiving
| ULM | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bryson Roland #25 | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 | 16 |
Marcellus Jackson #1 | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 | 14 |
 Nic Trujillo #7 | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | 10 |
 JP Coulter #4 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | 14 |
Don Chaney #20 | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | 8 |
 LT Robinson #0 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 9 |
 Bryce Anderson #8 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Parker Fulghum #13 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
Derrick Jameson #3 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 15 | 121 | 8.1 | 0 | 16 |
Defense
| ULM | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Noah Flemmings #3 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Chris Payne #17 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kevontay Wells #31 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Gavin Howard #38 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jabari Tiller #1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Zyan Tremont #90 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jay Harper #6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Marcus Ross #30 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Taijh Overton #18 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T TJ Williams #15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaeden Calender #9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Armoni Rue #13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Marvin Hall #99 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 James Smith #92 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
W Willie Wilson #26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Larell Howling #28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyrell Brown #34 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Billy Pullen #5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 47 | 31 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
Interceptions
| ULM | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Armoni Rue #13 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Gavin Howard #38 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Kick returns
| ULM | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marcellus Jackson #1 | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 20 | 0 |
Kicking
| ULM | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Abram Murray #27 | 2/2 | 100.0 | 40 | 1/2 | 7 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 40 | 1/2 | 7 |
Punting
| ULM | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Makenzie Ryan #47 | 1 | 48 | 48.0 | 0 | 1 | 48 |
 Gavin Polk #34 | 1 | 40 | 40.0 | 1 | 0 | 40 |
| Team | 2 | 88 | 44.0 | 1 | 1 | 48 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ULM | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 23 | 19 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 9-14 | 7-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Total Yards | 389 | 313 |
| Passing | 121 | 193 |
| Comp/Att | 15/19 | 16/29 |
| Yards per pass | 6.4 | 6.7 |
| Rushing | 268 | 120 |
| Rushing Attempts | 49 | 25 |
| Yards per rush | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| Penalties | 8-65 | 3-28 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 2 |
| Possession | 35:32 | 24:28 |
At lock ULM 18.32–34.22 ARST · ARST by 15.9 pts vs ARST -14.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissAidan Armenta · ULM
11/15 C/ATT · 90 YDSTrey Owens · ARST
16/29 C/ATT · 193 YDSAustin Carlisle · ULM
19 CAR · 111 YDSBryson Roland · ULM
3 REC · 35 YDSJaylen Bonelli · ARST
3 REC · 66 YDSNoah Flemmings · ULM
8 TOT · 4 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
UL Monroe vs Arkansas St pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ARST -14.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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