NCAAFFinalJohn L. Guidry Stadium

East Texas A&M Lions at Nicholls Colonels

Final · ESPN+

31–32

East Texas A&MNicholls

Final

East Texas A&M Lions

3-7

Final

Nicholls Colonels

4-6

ETAM 56%NICH 44%

At lock: projected ETAM 25.66–23.09 NICH

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1193379796

Missed · off by 7

Most typical sim

ETAM 29 – NICH 27

Final

ETAM 31 – NICH 32

Winner: East Texas A&M (54%)
Score error (both teams)7

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ETAM vs NICH

The model

How this number was built

ETAM 25.66–23.09 NICH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -9.2 vs -6.0 · model NICH 26.8–28.5 ETAM
Home field
+3.0 pts to NICH
Record
NICH 4-6 · ETAM 3-7
Market prior
Blended 66% toward ETAM -3 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ETAM	7	17	0	7	31
NICH	0	7	14	11	32

How the points were scored

TDQ1 2:207–0
Major McBride 7 Yd Run (Ozlo Rigby Kick)
TDQ2 14:567–7
Patrick Gales 12 Yd Run (Kingston Phan Kick)
TDQ2 11:4614–7
Major McBride 2 Yd Run (Ozlo Rigby Kick)
TDQ2 9:4721–7
Micah Simpson 66 Yd pass from Reese Mooney (Ozlo Rigby Kick)
FGQ2 0:3924–7
Ozlo Rigby 36 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 13:3624–14
Kasai Jones 26 Yd Fumble Return (Kingston Phan Kick)
TDQ3 4:3724–21
Greg Donaldson 37 Yd pass from Chase Richardson (Kingston Phan Kick)
FGQ4 11:1224–24
Kingston Phan 30 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 3:3631–24
EJ Oakmon 5 Yd Run (Ozlo Rigby Kick)
TDQ4 0:4731–32
Chase Richardson 1 Yd Run (Chase Richardson Pass to Chantz Babineaux for Two-Point Conversion)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

ETAM	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Reese Mooney #2	23/44	352	8.0	1	2	—
Team	23/44	352	8.0	1	2	—

Rushing

ETAM	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
EJ Oakmon #6	12	32	2.7	1	6
Major McBride #23	6	16	2.7	2	7
Quay Middlebrooks #3	2	3	1.5	0	2
Jordon Hamilton #21	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
Reese Mooney #2	2	-7	-3.5	0	1
Team	1	-18	-18.0	0	0
Team	24	25	1.0	3	7

Receiving

ETAM	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Micah Simpson #4	6	105	17.5	1	66
Tanner Harrison #5	4	104	26.0	0	45
Andrez Lewis #8	6	83	13.8	0	37
Sean Sallis #83	4	42	10.5	0	19
Quay Middlebrooks #3	1	13	13.0	0	13
EJ Oakmon #6	2	5	2.5	0	7
Team	23	352	15.3	1	66

Fumbles

ETAM	FUM	LOST	REC
Team	2	1	0
Wesley York Jr. #13	0	0	2
Team	2	1	2

Defense

ETAM	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD
David Spruiells #7	8	3	0	0.5	0
Duncan Parham #6	5	5	0	0	1
Dylan Scott #3	5	3	0	0.5	0
Luke Williams #32	4	3	1	1	0
Anthony Gray #12	4	3	1	1	0
X'Avion Brice #2	4	2	0	0	0
Caleb Nuhi-Yandall #17	4	2	0	0	0
Roman Kupu #5	3	3	0	1	0
Colin Douglas #19	3	2	0	0	1
Tramar Gilbert #0	3	1	0	0	0
Orion Kupu #1	3	1	0	0	0
Kai Baugh #42	3	1	0	0	0
Sonny Vitale #36	2	2	0	0	0
Isaiah Hare #93	2	1	1	1	0
S Salehe Koonooka-Williams #44	2	1	1	1	0
Kemani Wilson #15	2	1	0	0	0
D Dakari Harris #78	2	1	0	0.5	0
Kaden Taylor #84	1	1	0	0	0
Wesley York Jr. #13	1	1	0	0	0
Austin Iglesias #18	1	1	0	0	0
Samarion George #90	1	1	0	0	0
Jaheim Lowe #10	1	0	0	0	0
Matthew Goldman #33	1	0	0	0.5	0
Team	65	39	4	7	2

Kick returns

ETAM	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
David Spruiells #7	2	47	23.5	28
Tyler Stewart #7	1	24	24.0	24
Sean Sallis #83	1	15	15.0	15
Team	4	86	21.5	28

Punt returns

ETAM	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Kaden Taylor #84	3	25	8.3	16
Micah Simpson #4	1	6	6.0	6
Team	4	31	7.8	16

Kicking

ETAM	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Ozlo Rigby #49	1/1	100.0	36	4/4	7
Team	1/1	100.0	36	4/4	7

Punting

ETAM	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Ben Mehan #39	9	357	39.7	1	1	45
Team	9	357	39.7	1	1	45

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ETAM	NICH
1st Downs	16	18
3rd down efficiency	7-17	4-13
4th down efficiency	0-0	0-0
Total Yards	377	356
Passing	352	135
Comp/Att	23/44	14/26
Yards per pass	8.0	5.2
Rushing	25	221
Rushing Attempts	24	45
Yards per rush	1.0	4.9
Penalties	8-80	5-52
Turnovers	3	2
Fumbles lost	1	2
Interceptions thrown	2	0
Possession	29:04	30:56

Computer pick · Total

Over 45.5

51%

At lock ETAM 25.66–23.09 NICH · 3.3 pts over 45.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Reese Mooney · ETAM
23/44 C/ATT · 352 YDS
Chase Richardson · NICH
14/26 C/ATT · 135 YDS
EJ Oakmon · ETAM
12 CAR · 32 YDS
Micah Simpson · ETAM
6 REC · 105 YDS
Greg Donaldson · NICH
5 REC · 74 YDS
David Spruiells · ETAM
8 TOT · 3 SOLO

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

East Texas A&M vs Nicholls pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 45.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day