VMI Keydets at Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
Final · ESPN+
14–66
At lock: projected VMI 8.69–41.62 TNTC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1045939803
- Winner: Tennessee Tech (75%)
- Score error (both teams)41
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: VMI vs TNTC
The model
How this number was built
VMI 8.69–41.62 TNTC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.1 vs -5.8 · model TNTC 33.1–22.4 VMI
- Home field+3.0 pts to TNTC
- RecordTNTC 9-1 · VMI 0-10
- Market priorBlended 80% toward TNTC -39.5 / total 47.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VMI | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| TNTC | 7 | 35 | 7 | 17 | 66 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 10:490–7
Eric Weatherly 29 Yd pass from Jax Leatherwood (Carter Brown Kick)
- TDQ2 9:510–14
Eric Weatherly 29 Yd pass from Jax Leatherwood (Carter Brown Kick)
- TDQ2 6:597–14
Leo Boehling 37 Yd Run (Jack Joyce Kick)
- TDQ2 6:407–21
M.J. Flowers 8 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)
- TDQ2 5:187–28
Lazaro Rodriguez 21 Yd pass from Jax Leatherwood (Carter Brown Kick)
- TDQ2 2:447–35
Gabe Nunez 34 Yd pass from Jax Leatherwood (Carter Brown Kick)
- TDQ2 0:447–42
Maury Sullivan 24 Yd pass from Jax Leatherwood (Carter Brown Kick)
- TDQ3 9:137–49
Qua Ashley 6 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)
- TDQ3 2:2514–49
Cade Cox 17 Yd pass from JoJo Crump (Jack Joyce Kick)
- FGQ4 12:4314–52
Carter Brown 25 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 9:4614–59
Aidan Littles 43 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)
- TDQ4 5:5014–66
Ahmad Haston 7 Yd Run (Cole Thompson Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| VMI | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JoJo Crump #8 | 4/7 | 64 | 9.1 | 1 | 2 | — |
 Chandler Wilson #11 | 0/1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | — |
 Ian Reynolds #15 | 0/3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Team | 4/11 | 64 | 5.8 | 1 | 2 | — |
Rushing
| VMI | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leo Boehling #9 | 16 | 81 | 5.1 | 1 | 37 |
JoJo Crump #8 | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 | 4 |
 Jace Ballard #26 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
Chandler Wilson #11 | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | 3 |
 Trevin Simon #27 | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 |
 Cole Varner #4 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
Ian Reynolds #15 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | 7 |
 Brooks Martin #84 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
 Traveion Slaughter #1 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
 Adin Watters #31 | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 39 | 109 | 2.8 | 1 | 37 |
Receiving
| VMI | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cole Varner #4 | 1 | 41 | 41.0 | 0 | 41 |
 Cade Cox #3 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 1 | 17 |
Traveion Slaughter #1 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
Adin Watters #31 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 4 | 64 | 16.0 | 1 | 41 |
Fumbles
| VMI | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
JoJo Crump #8 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| VMI | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Robert Powell #11 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 EJ Wilborne #14 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Isaiah Grevious #1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ayden Babich #25 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Matthias Corbin #32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Quinn Kennedy #46 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Rod Tasco #4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Elijah Brooks #90 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jacob Moore #92 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Ethan Haston #5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Terry Dorsey #29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 David Czapp #91 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Erick Roman #51 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Hayden Morris #88 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Camden Clinton #21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Omar Miller #3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Carson Gue #7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Traveion Slaughter #1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Keegan Guyton #16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Trevin Simon #27 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Henry Berling #43 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jakari Nicely #24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 76 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Kicking
| VMI | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jack Joyce #35 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 |
Punting
| VMI | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Shrewsbury #99 | 5 | 240 | 48.0 | 0 | 0 | 62 |
 William Lees #42 | 1 | 39 | 39.0 | 0 | 0 | 39 |
| Team | 6 | 279 | 46.5 | 0 | 0 | 62 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| VMI | TNTC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 8 | 26 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 4-13 | 7-11 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Total Yards | 173 | 522 |
| Passing | 64 | 328 |
| Comp/Att | 4/11 | 23/30 |
| Yards per pass | 5.8 | 10.9 |
| Rushing | 109 | 194 |
| Rushing Attempts | 39 | 37 |
| Yards per rush | 2.8 | 5.2 |
| Penalties | 3-25 | 4-25 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 0 |
| Possession | 27:01 | 32:59 |
At lock VMI 8.69–41.62 TNTC · TNTC by 32.9 pts vs VMI +38.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJoJo Crump · VMI
4/7 C/ATT · 64 YDSJax Leatherwood · TNTC
21/28 C/ATT · 312 YDSLeo Boehling · VMI
16 CAR · 81 YDSM.J. Flowers · TNTC
17 CAR · 69 YDSCole Varner · VMI
1 REC · 41 YDSEric Weatherly · TNTC
7 REC · 112 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
VMI vs Tennessee Tech pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is VMI +38.5, with a 57% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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