Alabama State Hornets at Texas Southern Tigers
Final · SWAC TV
34–31
At lock: projected ALST 31.60–24.08 TXSO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3292463463
- Winner: Alabama St (64%)
- Score error (both teams)9
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ALST vs TXSO
The model
How this number was built
ALST 31.60–24.08 TXSO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -7.1 vs -1.4 · model TXSO 25.3–30.9 ALST
- Home field+3.0 pts to TXSO
- RecordTXSO 3-6 · ALST 5-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ALST -6.5 / total 54.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALST | 7 | 0 | 14 | 13 | 34 |
| TXSO | 7 | 7 | 0 | 17 | 31 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 4:110–7
Roriyon Richardson 11 Yd pass from Cam'Ron McCoy (Miguel Arana III Kick)
- TDQ1 3:527–7
Randall King 76 Yd pass from Aaron Frye (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)
- TDQ2 0:227–14
Roriyon Richardson 26 Yd pass from Cam'Ron McCoy (Miguel Arana III Kick)
- TDQ3 12:1814–14
Jareese Howard 3 Yd Run (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)
- TDQ3 3:0821–14
Jamarie Hostzclaw 2 Yd Run (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)
- TDQ4 13:3421–21
Cam'Ron McCoy 20 Yd Run (Miguel Arana III Kick)
- FGQ4 9:1321–24
Miguel Arana III 39 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 8:4428–24
Aaron Frye 76 Yd Run (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)
- TDQ4 5:1334–24
Israel Tate 35 Yd pass from Aaron Frye (Andrew Abu-Akel PAT blocked)
- TDQ4 3:1234–31
Kordell Rodgers 16 Yd pass from Cam'Ron McCoy (Miguel Arana III Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| ALST | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aaron Frye #9 | 13/17 | 209 | 12.3 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Team | 13/17 | 209 | 12.3 | 2 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| ALST | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Frye #9 | 14 | 162 | 11.6 | 1 | 76 |
 Jareese Howard #23 | 12 | 68 | 5.7 | 1 | 22 |
 Jamarie Hostzclaw #2 | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 1 | 8 |
 TJ Ramsey #5 | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 | 14 |
Team | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 39 | 277 | 7.1 | 3 | 76 |
Receiving
| ALST | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Randall King #10 | 1 | 76 | 76.0 | 1 | 76 |
 Israel Tate #17 | 3 | 75 | 25.0 | 1 | 35 |
D Daionte Hicks #87 | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 | 11 |
 John Austin #86 | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 | 15 |
 Nehemiah Hixon #4 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 13 | 209 | 16.1 | 2 | 76 |
Fumbles
| ALST | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Frye #9 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Dillyn Blakey #8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| ALST | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Azariel Todd #35 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mitchell Robinson Jr. #5 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zaquan Patterson #0 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zion Crawford #37 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Myles Richardson #48 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaylan Jarrett #55 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Thad Parson #96 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zach Williams #7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dillyn Blakey #8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Eldridge Shelton #15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Payton Lewis #49 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Michael Joiner Jr. #26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Montel Campbell #22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Detrick Jones | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jace Mcdonald #33 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kanye Varner | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaxon Lee #24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jerimia Collier #52 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zamari Hall #11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Paxton Genola #4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 TMarrion Phillips #47 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 60 | 38 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Interceptions
| ALST | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Zach Williams #7 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 15 | 0 |
Kick returns
| ALST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nehemiah Hixon #4 | 2 | 63 | 31.5 | 36 | 0 |
D Daionte Hicks #87 | 2 | 46 | 23.0 | 24 | 0 |
Jareese Howard #23 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 13 | 0 |
| Team | 5 | 122 | 24.4 | 36 | 0 |
Kicking
| ALST | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Andrew Abu-Akel #39 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4/5 | 4 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4/5 | 4 |
Punting
| ALST | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trevor Bywater #26 | 4 | 159 | 39.8 | 0 | 2 | 51 |
Team | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 5 | 159 | 31.8 | 0 | 2 | 51 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ALST | TXSO | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 21 | 18 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 4-9 | 5-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 486 | 317 |
| Passing | 209 | 113 |
| Comp/Att | 13/17 | 10/20 |
| Yards per pass | 12.3 | 5.7 |
| Rushing | 277 | 204 |
| Rushing Attempts | 39 | 39 |
| Yards per rush | 7.1 | 5.2 |
| Penalties | 12-104 | 4-25 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 28:01 | 31:59 |
At lock ALST 31.60–24.08 TXSO · ALST by 7.5 pts vs TXSO +8.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitAaron Frye · ALST
13/17 C/ATT · 209 YDSCam'Ron McCoy · TXSO
10/20 C/ATT · 113 YDSRandall King · ALST
1 REC · 76 YDSRoriyon Richardson · TXSO
2 REC · 37 YDSAzariel Todd · ALST
10 TOT · 6 SOLOJaquavus Hallman · TXSO
7 TOT · 4 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Alabama St vs Texas Southern pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is TXSO +8.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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