Northern Colorado Bears at Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Final · ESPN+
24–31
At lock: projected UNCO 23.55–31.78 SUU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2540244593
- Winner: Southern Utah (53%)
- Score error (both teams)6
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UNCO vs SUU
The model
How this number was built
UNCO 23.55–31.78 SUU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.2 vs -0.8 · model SUU 27.7–26.5 UNCO
- Home field+3.0 pts to SUU
- RecordSUU 4-6 · UNCO 3-7
- Market priorBlended 80% toward SUU -9.5 / total 54.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNCO | 0 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 24 |
| SUU | 7 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 31 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 8:490–7
Joshua Acord 16 Yd pass from Will Burns (Jayden Rogers Kick)
- TDQ2 11:120–14
Will Burns 19 Yd Run (Jayden Rogers Kick)
- TDQ2 6:260–21
Mark Bails 25 Yd pass from Will Burns (Jayden Rogers Kick)
- TDQ2 3:487–21
Marcus Mozer 27 Yd pass from Brayten Silbor (Landon Richardson Kick)
- FGQ2 0:027–24
Jayden Rogers 32 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ3 10:0610–24
Landon Richardson 39 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 6:1017–24
Garrett Harstad 12 Yd pass from Brayten Silbor (Landon Richardson Kick)
- TDQ3 2:0924–24
Justin Guin 5 Yd Run (Landon Richardson Kick)
- TDQ4 10:2424–31
Talmage Brown 2 Yd Run (Jayden Rogers Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| UNCO | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B Brayten Silbor #18 | 21/35 | 149 | 4.3 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Team | 21/35 | 149 | 4.3 | 2 | 2 | — |
Rushing
| UNCO | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brandon Lambert Jr. #28 | 5 | 67 | 13.4 | 0 | 46 |
 Justin Guin #6 | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 1 | 17 |
B Brayten Silbor #18 | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 0 | 17 |
 Kieryus Boone #10 | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 | 12 |
 Keegan Patterson #3 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 28 | 204 | 7.3 | 1 | 46 |
Receiving
| UNCO | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marcus Mozer #81 | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 1 | 27 |
 Gavin Lockett #9 | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 0 | 12 |
 Garrett Harstad #47 | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 1 | 12 |
 Carson Keach #20 | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | 8 |
Justin Guin #6 | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | 4 |
 Brayden Welch #87 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Jordan Herron #46 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 3 |
| Team | 21 | 149 | 7.1 | 2 | 27 |
Fumbles
| UNCO | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Jordan Herron #46 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
B Brayten Silbor #18 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| UNCO | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KJ Smedley #8 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Hudson Voggesser #45 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mikhail Benner #12 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
C Cadence Turner #30 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
R Rylen Renton #51 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ezra Ekuban #3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
D Dominic Butts #53 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
O Owen Wind #39 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Levi Little #99 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Franky Morales #6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ayden Merrihew #94 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Z Zion Wallace #27 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Andres Rodriguez #52 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Z Zion Parker #31 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
J Jackson Raguse #43 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Makur Abram #5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Myles McClarity #33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Blake Palladino #7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 George Patterson #15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Joshua Gallien #36 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Z Zach Pekarek #22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Colby Olson #50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Blake Weslin #11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 64 | 44 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Punt returns
| UNCO | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jordan Herron #46 | 2 | 45 | 22.5 | 23 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 45 | 22.5 | 23 | 0 |
Kicking
| UNCO | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L Landon Richardson #23 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 39 | 3/3 | 6 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 39 | 3/3 | 6 |
Punting
| UNCO | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J James Moore #27 | 2 | 96 | 48.0 | 0 | 1 | 53 |
| Team | 2 | 96 | 48.0 | 0 | 1 | 53 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNCO | SUU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 24 | 22 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 1-9 | 8-15 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Total Yards | 353 | 358 |
| Passing | 149 | 201 |
| Comp/Att | 21/35 | 18/29 |
| Yards per pass | 4.3 | 6.9 |
| Rushing | 204 | 157 |
| Rushing Attempts | 28 | 40 |
| Yards per rush | 7.3 | 3.9 |
| Penalties | 5-47 | 12-99 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 0 |
| Possession | 26:24 | 33:36 |
At lock UNCO 23.55–31.78 SUU · SUU by 8.2 pts vs UNCO +10 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitBrayten Silbor · UNCO
21/35 C/ATT · 149 YDSWill Burns · SUU
18/29 C/ATT · 201 YDSBrandon Lambert Jr. · UNCO
5 CAR · 67 YDSFloyd Chalk · SUU
22 CAR · 66 YDSMarcus Mozer · UNCO
5 REC · 46 YDSJoshua Acord · SUU
7 REC · 62 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
N Colorado vs Southern Utah pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UNCO +10, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day