NCAAFFinalBraly Stadium

West Florida Argonauts at North Alabama Lions

Final · ESPN+

21–28

West FloridaNorth Alabama

Final

West Florida Argonauts

4-4

Final

North Alabama Lions

6-4

UWF 39%UNA 61%

At lock: projected UWF 21.55–26.22 UNA

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2523466974

Winner called · off by 5

Most typical sim

UWF 26 – UNA 28

Final

UWF 21 – UNA 28

Winner: North Alabama (57%)
Score error (both teams)5

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UWF vs UNA

The model

How this number was built

UWF 21.55–26.22 UNA · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
UNA +0.1 off · UWF +0.1 off, shrunk 64%
Home field
+3.0 pts to UNA
Record
UNA 6-4 · UWF 4-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward UNA -5.5 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
UWF	7	0	7	7	21
UNA	7	14	7	0	28

How the points were scored

TDQ1 7:087–0
Kei'Shawn Smith 16 Yd pass from Ty'ray Davis (Reid Grek Kick)
TDQ1 5:007–7
Snap Reed 48 Yd pass from Destin Wade (Ian Vachon Kick)
TDQ2 7:437–14
Roderick Taylor Jr. 45 Yd Run (Ian Vachon Kick)
TDQ2 3:447–21
Destin Wade 1 Yd Run (Ian Vachon Kick)
TDQ3 14:0814–21
Roderick Webb 60 Yd Interception Return (Reid Grek Kick)
TDQ3 12:1314–28
Xavier Johnson 45 Yd pass from Destin Wade (Ian Vachon Kick)
TDQ4 7:3321–28
Luc Carroll 28 Yd pass from Ty'ray Davis (Reid Grek Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

UWF	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
T Ty'ray Davis #1	22/35	308	8.8	2	1	—
Team	22/35	308	8.8	2	1	—

Rushing

UWF	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
K Kei'Shawn Smith #21	13	53	4.1	15
T Ty'ray Davis #1	16	33	2.1	11
P Preston Godfrey #9	1	13	13.0	13
R Roosevelt Miller #26	3	6	2.0	4
Team	33	105	3.2	15

Receiving

UWF	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
L Luc Carroll #81	6	85	14.2	1	28
G Gage Armbruster #7	5	69	13.8	0	42
J Jake Robinette #80	4	57	14.3	0	29
K Kei'Shawn Smith #21	3	45	15.0	1	26
T Tyshon Mansell #5	1	23	23.0	0	23
R Roosevelt Miller #26	0	17	0.0	0	17
Markel Townsend #0	2	11	5.5	0	8
P Preston Godfrey #9	1	1	1.0	0	1
Team	22	308	14.0	2	42

Defense

UWF	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HUR	TD
C Cameron Anderson #14	14	11	2	0	0	0
T Travell Wright #3	9	6	1	1	0	0
R Roderick Webb #0	5	3	0	1	0	1
C Carson Ratliff #5	4	2	0	0	0	0
T Ty Conze #7	4	0	0	1	1	0
J Jamari Dickens #10	3	1	0	0	0	0
J Jamarion Stevenson #99	3	0	0	0	0	0
B Byron Puryear #1	2	2	1	0	0	0
K Kenyan Hunter #21	2	2	0	0	0	0
A'Khoury Lyde #4	2	1	0	0	0	0
W Will Fennema #2	2	0	0	0	0	0
Demontrae Gaston #17	1	1	0	0	0	0
V Vondarius Lane Jr. #35	1	1	0	0	0	0
Noah Gibson #6	1	1	0	0	0	0
A Adam Aiken #9	1	1	0	0	0	0
A Antwuan Hampton #91	1	1	0	0	0	0
B Brite Cannon #2	1	1	1	0	0	0
P Preston Godfrey #9	1	1	0	0	0	0
Markel James #11	1	0	0	0	0	0
C Christian Ware-Terry #15	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	59	35	5	3	1	1

Interceptions

UWF	INT	YDS	TD
R Roderick Webb #0	1	60	1
D David Law-Mortimer #29	1	0	0
Team	2	60	1

Kick returns

UWF	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Noah Gibson #6	2	54	27.0	30
L Luc Carroll #81	1	7	7.0	7
Cole Shaw #25	1	-4	-4.0	0
Team	4	57	14.3	30

Punt returns

UWF	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
B Brite Cannon #2	2	-4	-2.0	0	0
Team	2	-4	-2.0	0	0

Kicking

UWF	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
R Reid Grek #28	0/0	0.0	0	3/3	3
Team	0/0	0.0	0	3/3	3

Punting

UWF	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
M Michael Shine #19	5	200	40.0	1	3	50
Team	5	200	40.0	1	3	50

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UWF	UNA
1st Downs	22	18
3rd down efficiency	7-14	7-12
4th down efficiency	0-2	0-0
Total Yards	413	438
Passing	308	194
Comp/Att	22/35	12/19
Yards per pass	8.8	10.2
Rushing	105	244
Rushing Attempts	33	39
Yards per rush	3.2	6.3
Penalties	6-38	7-70
Turnovers	1	2
Fumbles lost	0	0
Interceptions thrown	1	2
Possession	30:13	29:47

Computer pick · Spread

UWF +5.5

51%

At lock UWF 21.55–26.22 UNA · UNA by 4.7 pts vs UWF +5.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Ty'ray Davis · UWF
22/35 C/ATT · 308 YDS
Destin Wade · UNA
12/19 C/ATT · 194 YDS
Kei'Shawn Smith · UWF
13 CAR · 53 YDS
Luc Carroll · UWF
6 REC · 85 YDS
Snap Reed · UNA
6 REC · 117 YDS
Cameron Anderson · UWF
14 TOT · 11 SOLO

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

West Florida vs North Alabama pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is UWF +5.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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