Overline Sports
ATPLMatHP4:30 AM CTATPRAFatALE7:00 AM CTNationsMNEatCYP8:00 AM CTNationsARMatLVA8:00 AM CTNFLNEatDET8:30 AM CTWTAALEatDIL8:30 AM CTWTASAMatMAR8:30 AM CTWTAVALatZHI10:00 AM CTWTACAMatARI10:00 AM CTNCAABABABACatFGCU11:00 AM CTNCAABQUINatCCSU11:00 AM CTNationsALBatBLR11:00 AM CT
Board/NCAAF
NCAAFFinalEstes Stadium

West Georgia Wolves at Central Arkansas Bears

Final · ESPN+

West Georgia14–35C Arkansas
West GeorgiaC Arkansas
Final
West Georgia Wolves
1-9
14
Final
Final
Central Arkansas Bears
3-7
35
WES 22%CARK 78%

At lock: projected WES 18.54–31.04 CARK

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2608340807

Winner called · off by 14
Most typical sim
WES 23 – CARK 30
Final
WES 14 – CARK 35
  • Winner: C Arkansas (66%)
  • Score error (both teams)14

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: WES vs CARK

The model

How this number was built

WES 18.54–31.04 CARK · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.3 vs -5.4 · model CARK 29.9–23.4 WES
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to CARK
  • Record
    CARK 3-7 · WES 1-9
  • Market prior
    Blended 66% toward CARK -13.5 / total 48.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WES770014
CARK71114335

How the points were scored

  • TDQ1 11:187–0

    Jaden Henry 84 Yd pass from Collin Hurst (Logan Lopez Kick)

  • TDQ1 2:007–7

    Tyrell Pollard 36 Yd pass from Donovyn Omolo (Caleb Jones Kick)

  • TDQ2 14:4914–7

    Holton Harris 70 Yd Run (Logan Lopez Kick)

  • TDQ2 10:0714–15

    Jalen Washington 1 Yd Run (Jalen Washington Run for Two-Point Conversion)

  • FGQ2 0:0014–18

    Caleb Jones 32 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ3 10:4614–25

    Joseph Washington 0 Yd Fumble Return (Caleb Jones Kick)

  • TDQ3 5:4814–32

    Donovyn Omolo 28 Yd Run (Caleb Jones Kick)

  • FGQ4 14:1714–35

    Caleb Jones 22 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

WESC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTadjQBR
Collin Hurst
#8
15/251847.410—
DK Daniel
#7
1/133.000—
Luke Marble
#3
0/100.000—
Team16/271876.910—

Rushing

WESCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Holton Harris
#33
17070.0170
Luke Marble
#3
6386.3024
C
Christian Monfort
#24
6233.8016
Shammai Gates
#27
6223.7017
Chance Washington
#5
4102.508
Collin Hurst
#8
4-11-2.806
Team
1-15-15.000
Team281374.9170

Receiving

WESRECYDSAVGTDLONG
Jaden Henry
#15
310936.3184
BJ Atkins
#6
11818.0018
Shammai Gates
#27
2157.509
C
Christian Monfort
#24
4153.806
Brody Jones
#16
2147.0012
DK Daniel
#7
294.5011
Malik Leverett
#17
144.004
Collin Hurst
#8
133.003
Team1618711.7184

Fumbles

WESFUMLOSTREC
Team
210
Collin Hurst
#8
210
Chancellor Bryant
#12
001
Team421

Defense

WESTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Chidu Bekee
#3
12500010
Dawson Rivers
#44
11500.5000
Stephan French
#7
10300000
Lucas Naquin
#39
8301010
Nakobi Spurrier
#98
7300000
Sean Ferguson
#18
6500010
D
Dalton Epps
#15
6100000
Chancellor Bryant
#12
4100000
Malik Lewis
#0
4000000
Myti Johnson
#20
3200100
Holton Harris
#33
3200000
E
Elijah Barnes
#6
3200100
Caleb Reid
#11
3000000
Cam Marshall
#1
2200000
Jamie Speight
#8
2100000
Andrew Ruffin
#14
2000000
Zack Harris
#40
2000.5000
Malik Leverett
#17
1100000
Shawn Cummings
#13
1100000
Randarius Ogletree
#22
1100000
Xavier Ether
#27
1100000
Darien Harden
#17
1000000
Team933902230

Kick returns

WESNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Jaden Henry
#15
111.010
Team111.010

Punt returns

WESNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Brody Jones
#16
2189.0110
Team2189.0110

Kicking

WESFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Logan Lopez
#38
0/10.002/22
Team0/10.002/22

Punting

WESNOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Nolan Harris
#94
415939.81045
Team415939.81045

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

WESCARK
1st Downs1329
3rd down efficiency1-128-15
4th down efficiency1-31-2
Total Yards324512
Passing187250
Comp/Att16/2724/34
Yards per pass6.97.4
Rushing137262
Rushing Attempts2851
Yards per rush4.95.1
Penalties4-185-50
Turnovers21
Fumbles lost21
Interceptions thrown00
Possession22:5337:07
Computer pick · Spread
WES +14
51%

At lock WES 18.54–31.04 CARK · CARK by 12.5 pts vs WES +14 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss
Players

  • Collin Hurst · WES

    15/25 C/ATT · 184 YDS

  • Donovyn Omolo · CARK

    24/34 C/ATT · 250 YDS

  • Holton Harris · WES

    1 CAR · 70 YDS

  • Jalen Washington · CARK

    21 CAR · 100 YDS

  • Jaden Henry · WES

    3 REC · 109 YDS

  • Dakarai Anderson · CARK

    10 REC · 113 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

West Georgia vs C Arkansas pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is WES +14, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

21+Must be 21+ to bet. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

© 2026 OVERLINE Sports · Image credits