Richmond Spiders at Villanova Wildcats
Final · ESPN+
0–30
At lock: projected RICH 21.45–29.04 VILL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2782625945
- Winner: Villanova (64%)
- Score error (both teams)26
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: RICH vs VILL
The model
How this number was built
RICH 21.45–29.04 VILL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.0 vs -5.6 · model VILL 31.0–25.2 RICH
- Home field+3.0 pts to VILL
- RecordVILL 6-4 · RICH 6-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward VILL -8.5 / total 47.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RICH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VILL | 7 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 30 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 3:500–7
Brandon Binkowski 6 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Dominic LeBlanc Kick)
- FGQ2 12:140–10
Dominic LeBlanc 32 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 5:250–17
Braden Reed 46 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Dominic LeBlanc Kick)
- FGQ2 0:440–20
Dominic LeBlanc 41 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 12:420–27
Ja'briel Mace 19 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Dominic LeBlanc Kick)
- FGQ4 3:360–30
Dominic LeBlanc 33 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| RICH | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jack Callaghan #6 | 8/21 | 60 | 2.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Team | 8/21 | 60 | 2.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| RICH | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jack Callaghan #6 | 15 | 54 | 3.6 | 0 | 18 |
 Aziz Foster-Powell #3 | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 | 7 |
 Jamaal Brown #7 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
 Warrick Stephenson #36 | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 25 | 80 | 3.2 | 0 | 18 |
Receiving
| RICH | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Quanye Veney #1 | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 | 10 |
Aziz Foster-Powell #3 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | 17 |
B Bryce Allen #8 | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | 6 |
 Andreas Hill #5 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
 Jaiden Fair #2 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 8 | 60 | 7.5 | 0 | 17 |
Fumbles
| RICH | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Jaiden Fair #2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| RICH | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C Caleb Geronomi #2 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tayshaun Burney #3 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Carter Glassmyer #10 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Blake Houser #11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 TJ Baldwin #5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Devin Geronomi #22 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Camden Byrd #6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Braxton Lassiter #8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jamar Hodges #32 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Krystian Williams #15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jackson Thorne #21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jordan Wilkes #40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tramayne Bullock #12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Bryce Lee #95 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
M Matthew Jones #33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jeremiah Washington #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Moses Bailey #44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
M Matt Holland #20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jefferson Serkfem #91 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 61 | 43 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| RICH | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jaiden Fair #2 | 3 | 45 | 15.0 | 16 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 45 | 15.0 | 16 | 0 |
Punting
| RICH | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ned Gray #37 | 6 | 238 | 39.7 | 0 | 0 | 47 |
| Team | 6 | 238 | 39.7 | 0 | 0 | 47 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| RICH | VILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 7 | 21 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 3-13 | 5-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 140 | 417 |
| Passing | 60 | 179 |
| Comp/Att | 8/21 | 12/18 |
| Yards per pass | 2.9 | 9.9 |
| Rushing | 80 | 238 |
| Rushing Attempts | 25 | 49 |
| Yards per rush | 3.2 | 4.9 |
| Penalties | 5-40 | 4-46 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 21:22 | 38:38 |
At lock RICH 21.45–29.04 VILL · VILL by 7.6 pts vs RICH +8.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJack Callaghan · RICH
8/21 C/ATT · 60 YDSPat McQuaide · VILL
11/17 C/ATT · 163 YDSIsaiah Ragland · VILL
17 CAR · 125 YDSQuanye Veney · RICH
3 REC · 27 YDSBraden Reed · VILL
5 REC · 75 YDSCaleb Geronomi · RICH
9 TOT · 6 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Richmond vs Villanova pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is RICH +8.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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