NCAAFFinalArthur J. Rooney Athletic Field

Robert Morris Colonials at Duquesne Dukes

Final · ESPN+

13–10

Robert MorrisDuquesne

Final

Robert Morris Colonials

5-5

Final

Duquesne Dukes

4-5

RMU 32%DUQ 68%

At lock: projected RMU 20.54–28.11 DUQ

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1759747958

Winner called · off by 31

Most typical sim

RMU 28 – DUQ 26

Final

RMU 13 – DUQ 10

Winner: Robert Morris (56%)
Score error (both teams)31

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: RMU vs DUQ

The model

How this number was built

RMU 20.54–28.11 DUQ · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -7.5 vs -3.8 · model DUQ 25.8–28.2 RMU
Home field
+3.0 pts to DUQ
Record
DUQ 4-5 · RMU 5-5
Market prior
Blended 80% toward DUQ -10 / total 47.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
RMU	10	3	0	0	13
DUQ	3	0	0	7	10

How the points were scored

TDQ1 12:077–0
Carson Haggard 1 Yd Run (Lucca Valens Kick)
FGQ1 7:457–3
Matt Marcinko 39 Yd Field Goal
FGQ1 2:3410–3
Lucca Valens 19 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 4:5413–3
Lucca Valens 25 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 12:2413–10
Dazhaun Hopkins 2 Yd Run (Matt Marcinko Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

RMU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Carson Haggard #3	16/30	217	7.2	0	1	—
Team	16/30	217	7.2	0	1	—

Rushing

RMU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Keino Fitzpatrick II #15	15	71	4.7	0	32
Carson Haggard #3	11	10	0.9	1	6
J'Kharri Thomas #20	1	7	7.0	0	7
Xavier Goulbourne #0	3	5	1.7	0	2
Galen Combs #9	1	2	2.0	0	2
Team	3	-11	-3.7	0	2
Team	34	84	2.5	1	32

Receiving

RMU	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Galen Combs #9	6	110	18.3	35
Tyler Evans #11	3	59	19.7	44
Keino Fitzpatrick II #15	4	26	6.5	10
Max Lopacienski #88	1	12	12.0	12
Noah Schaerli #81	2	10	5.0	6
Team	16	217	13.6	44

Fumbles

RMU	FUM	LOST	REC
Carson Haggard #3	1	1	0
Asher Wilson #9	0	0	1
Team	1	1	1

Defense

RMU	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	QB HUR
Amanuel Dickson #11	8	6	1	2	0
Mekhi Kilburn #4	7	5	0	0	0
John Gayer #97	6	5	1	2	0
Jake Lopinto #44	6	2	0	0	0
David Johnson #0	5	2	0	0	0
Jaylen Williams #27	4	3	0	0	0
Chyco Williams #12	2	2	0	0	0
Tahseen Howard #1	2	1	0	0	0
Blake Allen #19	2	1	0	0	0
Khalil Hunter #13	1	1	0	0	1
Tay'Shawn Wilson #2	1	1	0	0	0
Quedrion Miles #7	1	1	0	0	0
Alex Long #48	1	1	0	0	0
Antonio Martin #6	1	1	0	0	0
Max Thompson #37	1	1	0	0	0
Logan King #49	1	1	0	0	0
Ashton Hampton #87	1	1	0	0	0
Osman Kamara #98	1	1	0	0	0
Jyree Roberts #8	1	0	0	0	0
Asher Wilson #9	1	0	0	0	0
Kyree Wimberly #36	1	0	0	0	0
Bryan Robertson #95	0	0	0	0	1
Team	54	36	2	4	2

Interceptions

RMU	INT	YDS	TD
Blake Allen #19	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Kick returns

RMU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Owen McGraw #2	1	21	21.0	21	0
Team	1	21	21.0	21	0

Kicking

RMU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Lucca Valens #43	2/2	100.0	25	1/1	7
Team	2/2	100.0	25	1/1	7

Punting

RMU	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Bryson Costa #33	4	166	41.5	0	2	55
Team	4	166	41.5	0	2	55

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	RMU	DUQ
1st Downs	16	16
3rd down efficiency	6-15	4-11
4th down efficiency	0-0	0-1
Total Yards	301	258
Passing	217	114
Comp/Att	16/30	10/20
Yards per pass	7.2	5.7
Rushing	84	144
Rushing Attempts	34	36
Yards per rush	2.5	4.0
Penalties	6-55	2-25
Turnovers	2	2
Fumbles lost	1	1
Interceptions thrown	1	1
Possession	32:48	27:12

Computer pick · Spread

RMU +10

53%

At lock RMU 20.54–28.11 DUQ · DUQ by 7.6 pts vs RMU +10 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Carson Haggard · RMU
16/30 C/ATT · 217 YDS
Carson Camp · DUQ
10/20 C/ATT · 114 YDS
Keino Fitzpatrick II · RMU
15 CAR · 71 YDS
Ness Davis · DUQ
24 CAR · 127 YDS
Galen Combs · RMU
6 REC · 110 YDS
Khiryn Boyd · DUQ
7 REC · 83 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Robert Morris vs Duquesne pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is RMU +10, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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