Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Stonehill Skyhawks
Final · ESPN+
31–7
At lock: projected CCSU 29.55–24.93 STO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1860707862
- Winner: Stonehill (63%)
- Score error (both teams)29
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CCSU vs STO
The model
How this number was built
CCSU 29.55–24.93 STO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.3 vs -4.4 · model STO 30.0–24.8 CCSU
- Home field+3.0 pts to STO
- RecordSTO 4-6 · CCSU 6-3
- Market priorBlended 80% toward CCSU -6.5 / total 51.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCSU | 7 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 31 |
| STO | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 7:180–7
Aidan Garrett 2 Yd Run (Domenic Scalese Kick)
- TDQ1 6:207–7
Michael Trovarelli 29 Yd pass from Brett Griffis (Jack Hennessey Kick)
- TDQ2 12:5414–7
Brett Griffis 1 Yd Run (Jack Hennessey Kick)
- TDQ3 2:2121–7
David Pardo 19 Yd pass from Brett Griffis (Jack Hennessey Kick)
- FGQ3 0:0024–7
Jack Hennessey 22 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 12:1131–7
Gabriel Wiggins 51 Yd pass from Brett Griffis (Jack Hennessey Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| CCSU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brett Griffis #10 | 21/27 | 286 | 10.6 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Team | 21/27 | 286 | 10.6 | 3 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| CCSU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Davon Smith Jr. #25 | 16 | 102 | 6.4 | 0 | 37 |
 John Manning IV #21 | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 | 20 |
Brett Griffis #10 | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 1 | 22 |
 Isaac Stopke #4 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | 14 |
G Gabriel Wiggins #29 | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 | 5 |
Team | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 36 | 176 | 4.9 | 1 | 37 |
Receiving
| CCSU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G Gabriel Wiggins #29 | 4 | 92 | 23.0 | 1 | 51 |
M Michael Trovarelli #5 | 5 | 73 | 14.6 | 1 | 29 |
 David Pardo #9 | 3 | 45 | 15.0 | 1 | 23 |
 Donovan Wadley #0 | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 | 26 |
Davon Smith Jr. #25 | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | 16 |
 Elijah Daniels #1 | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 | 18 |
Isaac Stopke #4 | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | 4 |
 Damani Williams #2 | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 5 |
| Team | 21 | 286 | 13.6 | 3 | 51 |
Fumbles
| CCSU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Isaac Stopke #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| CCSU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacob Staton #23 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Amir Proctor #26 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Mykhi Davis #18 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Daren Omoregie #0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
D Deonte Douglas #38 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 LaZaryus Toombs #5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
 Navon Mitchell #4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J JJ Gibson #50 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaden Langford #37 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Wayne Coleman Jr. #1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
 Davion Jennings #6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T Tymaine Smith #24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 TJ Shittu #11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
J Javez Caldwell #94 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jared Massay #8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
C Chris Jean #7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sharod Watkins #55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Breon Askins #17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
J Jarrett Serate #97 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 36 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Interceptions
| CCSU | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Davion Jennings #6 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Daren Omoregie #0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Kick returns
| CCSU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donovan Wadley #0 | 1 | 64 | 64.0 | 64 | 0 |
G Gabriel Wiggins #29 | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 27 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 91 | 45.5 | 64 | 0 |
Kicking
| CCSU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jack Hennessey #42 | 1/3 | 33.0 | 22 | 4/4 | 7 |
| Team | 1/3 | 33.3 | 22 | 4/4 | 7 |
Punting
| CCSU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S Sammy Johnson #95 | 2 | 64 | 32.0 | 0 | 0 | 35 |
| Team | 2 | 64 | 32.0 | 0 | 0 | 35 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CCSU | STO | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 20 | 11 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 6-12 | 2-10 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Total Yards | 462 | 199 |
| Passing | 286 | 111 |
| Comp/Att | 21/27 | 11/28 |
| Yards per pass | 10.6 | 4.0 |
| Rushing | 176 | 88 |
| Rushing Attempts | 36 | 19 |
| Yards per rush | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| Penalties | 9-100 | 11-105 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 2 |
| Possession | 38:20 | 21:40 |
At lock CCSU 29.55–24.93 STO · CCSU by 4.6 pts vs STO +7 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
MissBrett Griffis · CCSU
21/27 C/ATT · 286 YDSJack O'Connell · STO
11/28 C/ATT · 111 YDSDavon Smith Jr. · CCSU
16 CAR · 102 YDSAidan Garrett · STO
14 CAR · 64 YDSGabriel Wiggins · CCSU
4 REC · 92 YDSShawn Corchado · STO
2 REC · 35 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
C Connecticut vs Stonehill pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is STO +7, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day