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Board/NCAAF
NCAAFFinalWildcat Stadium (NH)

Rhode Island Rams at New Hampshire Wildcats

Final · FloSports

Rhode Island21–24New Hampshire
Rhode IslandNew Hampshire
Final
Rhode Island Rams
5-5
21
Final
Final
New Hampshire Wildcats
3-7
24
URI 63%UNH 37%

At lock: projected URI 26.43–20.96 UNH

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1243396796

Winner called · off by 10
Most typical sim
URI 27 – UNH 28
Final
URI 21 – UNH 24
  • Winner: New Hampshire (51%)
  • Score error (both teams)10

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: URI vs UNH

The model

How this number was built

URI 26.43–20.96 UNH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.4 vs -2.7 · model UNH 28.0–27.4 URI
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to UNH
  • Record
    UNH 3-7 · URI 5-5
  • Market prior
    Blended 80% toward URI -7 / total 45.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
URI1400721
UNH7100724

How the points were scored

  • TDQ1 9:417–0

    Brayden Richardson 64 Yd Run (Ty Groff Kick)

  • TDQ1 7:387–7

    Logan Perez 52 Yd pass from Tommy McLeish (Lucas Glassburn Kick)

  • TDQ1 4:0014–7

    Sean Byrd 26 Yd pass from Alex McClelland (Ty Groff Kick)

  • TDQ2 14:4414–14

    Tommy McLeish 7 Yd pass from Ryan Ricketti (Lucas Glassburn Kick)

  • FGQ2 0:0214–17

    Lucas Glassburn 23 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ4 3:4721–17

    Alex McClelland 1 Yd Run (Ty Groff Kick)

  • TDQ4 0:0721–24

    Colby Ramshaw 1 Yd pass from Tommy McLeish (Lucas Glassburn Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

URIC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTadjQBR
Alex McClelland
#15
10/251425.711—
Team10/251425.711—

Rushing

URICARYDSAVGTDLONG
Brayden Richardson
#20
161388.6164
Alex McClelland
#15
17502.9112
Terrence Campbell
#27
111.001
Kevin Green Jr.
#6
100.000
Gabe Winowich
#22
100.000
Alvarez Baker
#85
1-3-3.000
Team371865.0264

Receiving

URIRECYDSAVGTDLONG
Sean Byrd
#8
24824.0126
Eddie Combs III
#80
34214.0019
Jamall Mensah
#9
24020.0033
Marvin Landy
#88
177.007
Kevin Green Jr.
#6
252.504
Team1014214.2133

Fumbles

URIFUMLOSTREC
Alex McClelland
#15
100
Case Mankins
#97
001
Team101

Defense

URITOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Case Mankins
#97
8712100
Dane Picariello
#16
7400000
Trey Lubin
#3
7400200
Moses Meus
#7
7301020
D.J. Cureton
#4
6400100
Tyson Grimm
#13
5100000
Andre DePina-Gray
#8
4300000
Rohan Davy
#0
4200000
Jermel Bynum
#19
3301100
Mitchell Garner
#11
3200.5100
Sam Ofurie
#33
2201000
Gage Hinkley
#55
2100000
Tosin Akinsulire
#92
2000110
Marquese Avery
#50
1111000
Ethan McCann-Carter
#35
1100000
Patrick Conserve
#51
1100000
Tremel States-Jones
#23
1000000
Kareem Wilson Jr.
#96
1000.5000
Chaas McCoy
#21
1000000
Elijah Rich
#48
1000000
Team673927730

Kick returns

URINOYDSAVGLONGTD
Kevin Green Jr.
#6
24020.0200
Elijah Rich
#48
100.000
Team34013.3200

Punt returns

URINOYDSAVGLONGTD
Kevin Green Jr.
#6
100.000
Team100.000

Kicking

URIFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Ty Groff
#45
0/00.003/33
Team0/00.003/33

Punting

URINOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Randy Leavitt
#32
628948.21158
Team
11919.00019
Team730844.01158

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

URIUNH
1st Downs1822
3rd down efficiency4-147-17
4th down efficiency1-20-0
Total Yards328390
Passing142278
Comp/Att10/2522/38
Yards per pass5.77.3
Rushing186112
Rushing Attempts3732
Yards per rush5.03.5
Penalties9-6011-106
Turnovers11
Fumbles lost01
Interceptions thrown10
Possession29:1830:42
Computer pick · Spread
UNH +7
53%

At lock URI 26.43–20.96 UNH · URI by 5.5 pts vs UNH +7 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit
Players

  • Alex McClelland · URI

    10/25 C/ATT · 142 YDS

  • Tommy McLeish · UNH

    21/37 C/ATT · 271 YDS

  • Brayden Richardson · URI

    16 CAR · 138 YDS

  • Myles Thomason · UNH

    16 CAR · 84 YDS

  • Sean Byrd · URI

    2 REC · 48 YDS

  • Logan Perez · UNH

    4 REC · 91 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Rhode Island vs New Hampshire pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is UNH +7, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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