NCAAFFinalBarker-Lane Stadium

Stony Brook Seawolves at Campbell Fighting Camels

Final · FloSports

35–48

Stony BrookCampbell

Final

Stony Brook Seawolves

5-5

Final

Campbell Fighting Camels

8-2

STBK 37%CAM 63%

At lock: projected STBK 28.99–34.39 CAM

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1276952034

Missed · off by 28

Most typical sim

STBK 28 – CAM 27

Final

STBK 35 – CAM 48

Winner: Stony Brook (52%)
Score error (both teams)28

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: STBK vs CAM

The model

How this number was built

STBK 28.99–34.39 CAM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -6.0 vs -3.3 · model CAM 26.7–27.7 STBK
Home field
+3.0 pts to CAM
Record
CAM 8-2 · STBK 5-5
Market prior
Blended 80% toward CAM -7 / total 65.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
STBK	7	21	7	0	35
CAM	7	14	14	13	48

How the points were scored

TDQ1 10:410–7
JJ Cowan 4 Yd pass from Kamden Sixkiller (Brandon Bowman Kick)
TDQ1 7:567–7
Jameer Reeder 29 Yd Run (Michael Mannino Kick)
TDQ2 13:0514–7
Seth Sweitzer 5 Yd pass from Quinn Boyd (Michael Mannino Kick)
TDQ2 9:3321–7
Seth Sweitzer 30 Yd pass from Quinn Boyd (Michael Mannino Kick)
TDQ2 5:2721–14
Jon Gullette 7 Yd pass from Kamden Sixkiller (Brandon Bowman Kick)
TDQ2 2:0121–21
Jyron Waiters 75 Yd pass from Kamden Sixkiller (Brandon Bowman Kick)
TDQ2 0:2828–21
D.J. Linkins 22 Yd pass from Quinn Boyd (Michael Mannino Kick)
TDQ3 12:3435–21
Seth Sweitzer 28 Yd pass from Quinn Boyd (Michael Mannino Kick)
TDQ3 12:2235–28
Jon Gullette 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Brandon Bowman Kick)
TDQ3 3:5635–35
Ethan Lawrence 2 Yd Run (Brandon Bowman Kick)
TDQ4 11:2535–41
Christian Campbell 7 Yd pass from Kamden Sixkiller (Brandon Bowman PAT failed)
TDQ4 0:1835–48
Ethan Lawrence 3 Yd Run (Brandon Bowman Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

STBK	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Quinn Boyd #10	31/43	348	8.1	4	1	—
Aidan Leffler #7	2/3	25	8.3	0	0	—
Team	33/46	373	8.1	4	1	—

Rushing

STBK	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jameer Reeder #27	13	100	7.7	1	29
Quinn Boyd #10	9	43	4.8	0	12
Dylan Harris #26	5	41	8.2	0	16
Lucas Martin #85	2	1	0.5	0	1
Aidan Leffler #7	2	-5	-2.5	0	3
Team	31	180	5.8	1	29

Receiving

STBK	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Seth Sweitzer #3	9	149	16.6	3	33
D.J. Linkins #1	6	86	14.3	1	23
Max Ware #5	5	65	13.0	0	42
Rayden Aphayvong #47	2	17	8.5	0	13
Jameer Reeder #27	6	17	2.8	0	7
Lucas Martin #85	3	16	5.3	0	10
Andrew Riggs #46	1	12	12.0	0	12
Justin Reshard #13	1	11	11.0	0	11
Team	33	373	11.3	4	42

Defense

STBK	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Geno Calgaro #20	18	9	0	0.5	0	0
Anthony Ferrelli #42	13	5	0	0	0	1
Joseph Garcia #6	13	3	0	0	2	2
Miles McGoy #4	8	6	0	0	2	0
T Takai Takahashi #25	7	4	0	0	0	0
Khalid Bueno #11	6	2	1	2	0	1
Justus Gaskin #29	3	2	0	0	0	0
AJ Roberts #2	2	2	0	1	0	0
Sebastian Regis #8	2	0	0	0.5	0	0
Tyson Roberts #15	2	0	0	0	0	0
Cam Johnson #16	1	1	0	0	0	0
Lance Byndon #0	1	0	0	0	0	0
DaMario Crawford #9	1	0	0	0	0	0
Josh Leath #51	1	0	0	0	0	0
Maurice Seals #95	1	0	0	0	0	0
F Frenchmon Bethea #81	1	0	0	0	0	0
Lucas Love #75	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	80	34	1	4	4	5

Kick returns

STBK	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
DaMario Crawford #9	2	23	11.5	15
Declan McNamara #41	1	7	7.0	7
Team	3	30	10.0	15

Punt returns

STBK	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Justin Reshard #13	1	2	2.0	2	0
Team	1	2	2.0	2	0

Kicking

STBK	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Michael Mannino #17	0/0	0.0	0	5/5	5
Team	0/0	0.0	0	5/5	5

Punting

STBK	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Patrick Cleary #34	3	137	45.7	0	1	53
Team	3	137	45.7	0	1	53

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	STBK	CAM
1st Downs	30	28
3rd down efficiency	7-13	7-13
4th down efficiency	0-2	1-1
Total Yards	553	524
Passing	373	396
Comp/Att	33/46	33/46
Yards per pass	8.1	8.6
Rushing	180	128
Rushing Attempts	31	28
Yards per rush	5.8	4.6
Penalties	7-60	5-47
Turnovers	1	0
Fumbles lost	0	0
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	29:18	30:42

Computer pick · Spread

STBK +7

52%

At lock STBK 28.99–34.39 CAM · CAM by 5.4 pts vs STBK +7 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Quinn Boyd · STBK
31/43 C/ATT · 348 YDS
Kamden Sixkiller · CAM
33/46 C/ATT · 396 YDS
Jameer Reeder · STBK
13 CAR · 100 YDS
Ethan Lawrence · CAM
15 CAR · 68 YDS
Seth Sweitzer · STBK
9 REC · 149 YDS
Christian Campbell · CAM
7 REC · 117 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Stony Brook vs Campbell pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is STBK +7, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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