UAlbany Great Danes at Bryant Bulldogs
Final · FloSports
7–31
At lock: projected ALB 26.84–19.06 BRY
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1193063939
- Winner: UAlbany (52%)
- Score error (both teams)25
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ALB vs BRY
The model
How this number was built
ALB 26.84–19.06 BRY · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.9 vs -1.2 · model BRY 25.6–26.5 ALB
- Home field+3.0 pts to BRY
- RecordBRY 6-4 · ALB 6-4
- Market priorBlended 80% toward UALB -10.5 / total 44.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| BRY | 7 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 31 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 10:370–7
Kendrick Agenor 2 Yd Run (Nicholas Stoyanovich Kick)
- TDQ2 9:070–14
Jordan Bennett 1 Yd Run (Nicholas Stoyanovich Kick)
- TDQ2 6:060–21
Brennan Myer 2 Yd Run (Nicholas Stoyanovich Kick)
- TDQ2 2:490–28
Shamar Fowles 38 Yd pass from Brennan Myer (Nicholas Stoyanovich Kick)
- TDQ4 14:167–28
Kai Colon 8 Yd Run (Brayden Heitmeyer Kick)
- FGQ4 8:157–31
Nicholas Stoyanovich 25 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| ALB | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kai Colon #12 | 12/25 | 140 | 5.6 | 0 | 1 | — |
 Aidan Semo #9 | 0/2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Team | 12/27 | 140 | 5.2 | 0 | 1 | — |
Rushing
| ALB | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Joey Koch #22 | 11 | 61 | 5.5 | 0 | 25 |
 Tavahri Groves #7 | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | 11 |
Aidan Semo #9 | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Keon Kenner #4 | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 4 |
 Jordan Rae #1 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
Kai Colon #12 | 8 | -3 | -0.4 | 1 | 12 |
| Team | 28 | 105 | 3.8 | 1 | 25 |
Receiving
| ALB | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tavahri Groves #7 | 6 | 86 | 14.3 | 0 | 21 |
Joey Koch #22 | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 | 21 |
 Nick Petrillo #18 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 |
 BJ Norman #5 | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | 9 |
Jordan Rae #1 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Luke McAuliffe #16 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
| Team | 12 | 140 | 11.7 | 0 | 21 |
Fumbles
| ALB | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
BJ Norman #5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| ALB | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jeremiah Pruitt #1 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Victor Holt #12 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Donny Jones #4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dillon Dunathan #41 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Drew Buckley #9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jamari Young #0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cole Sisson #96 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Shawan Lewis #11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Steven Rose Jr #2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dominic Jones #49 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Isaiah Boyd #55 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dana Johnson Jr. #7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sekou Roland #13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kion Wright #5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sam Boyer #17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Christian Santiago #97 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 RJ McCollough #99 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Keon Powell #20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Joey Koch #22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Rich Benenge #10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jemel Williams #92 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Romero Lavalais Jr. #29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 85 | 25 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Kick returns
| ALB | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aaron Angelo #82 | 3 | 50 | 16.7 | 20 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 50 | 16.7 | 20 | 0 |
Punt returns
| ALB | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BJ Norman #5 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Kicking
| ALB | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brayden Heitmeyer #47 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
Punting
| ALB | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gavin Myers #38 | 6 | 252 | 42.0 | 0 | 3 | 52 |
| Team | 6 | 252 | 42.0 | 0 | 3 | 52 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ALB | BRY | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 14 | 18 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 3-11 | 12-17 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Total Yards | 245 | 396 |
| Passing | 140 | 254 |
| Comp/Att | 12/27 | 13/18 |
| Yards per pass | 5.2 | 14.1 |
| Rushing | 105 | 142 |
| Rushing Attempts | 28 | 49 |
| Yards per rush | 3.8 | 2.9 |
| Penalties | 8-68 | 9-80 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 23:46 | 36:14 |
At lock ALB 26.84–19.06 BRY · ALB by 7.8 pts vs BRY +9.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitKai Colon · ALB
12/25 C/ATT · 140 YDSBrennan Myer · BRY
13/18 C/ATT · 254 YDSJoey Koch · ALB
11 CAR · 61 YDSKendrick Agenor · BRY
14 CAR · 52 YDSTavahri Groves · ALB
6 REC · 86 YDSSean Wilson Jr. · BRY
4 REC · 101 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
UAlbany vs Bryant pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is BRY +9.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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