Northern Illinois Huskies at San José State Spartans
Final · MW+
19–30
At lock: projected NIU 20.28–31.11 SJSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:13 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3618691618
- Winner: San José St (75%)
- Spread: SJSU -10 covers (51% vs 46%, push 2%)
- Total: Under 52.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: NIU vs SJSU
The model
How this number was built
NIU 20.28–31.11 SJSU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexSJSU -12.0 vs NIU -21.4 · pred margin +12.0
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.9 vs -9.6 · model SJSU 31.2–17.4 NIU
- Home field+3.0 pts to SJSU
- RecordSJSU 5-5 · NIU 0-9
- Market priorBlended 66% toward SJSU -11.5 / total 52.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIU | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 19 |
| SJSU | 10 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 30 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 9:430–7
Viliami Teu 5 Yd Run (Trajan Sinatra Kick)
- FGQ1 2:060–10
Trajan Sinatra 25 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 11:460–13
Trajan Sinatra 46 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 8:076–13
Telly Johnson Jr. 4 Yd Run (Ryan Short PAT failed)
- TDQ2 3:2513–13
Zaire McKinney 19 Yd pass from Taron Dickens (Ryan Short Kick)
- FGQ2 1:3713–16
Trajan Sinatra 22 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 9:3213–23
Viliami Teu 1 Yd Run (Trajan Sinatra Kick)
- TDQ3 6:0913–30
Dominique McKenzie 29 Yd pass from Daniel Rolovich (Trajan Sinatra Kick)
- TDQ4 3:5519–30
Taron Dickens 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| NIU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Taron Dickens #5 | 26/36 | 259 | 7.2 | 1 | 1 | 37.5 |
| Team | 26/36 | 259 | 7.2 | 1 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| NIU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Elijah Porter #24 | 12 | 79 | 6.6 | 0 | 17 |
 Telly Johnson Jr. #45 | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 1 | 33 |
Taron Dickens #5 | 17 | 9 | 0.5 | 1 | 11 |
 DeAree Rogers #1 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Jake Ference #36 | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 38 | 141 | 3.7 | 2 | 33 |
Receiving
| NIU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DeAree Rogers #1 | 6 | 86 | 14.3 | 0 | 40 |
 La'Don Bryant #0 | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 0 | 18 |
 Zaire McKinney #88 | 3 | 45 | 15.0 | 1 | 19 |
Telly Johnson Jr. #45 | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | 13 |
 George Dimopoulos #9 | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Afy Ibekwe #6 | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 7 |
 Liam Russo #87 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 |
Elijah Porter #24 | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | 7 |
| Team | 26 | 259 | 10.0 | 1 | 40 |
Fumbles
| NIU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
DeAree Rogers #1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Taron Dickens #5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| NIU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jack Murray #44 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Jashawn Nelson #6 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Kole Sneed #90 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Brady Kerperin #25 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Yassine Falke #5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Micah Cook #87 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Amari Washington #11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Avery Jones #2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kyon Conyers #16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Matthew Scarlett #50 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Liam Lindo #3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Montrel Canion #0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Fawzy Omotoso #93 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Champ Smith III #31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jacob McGhee #92 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Andruw Ellis #30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jordan Bellamy #55 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 62 | 26 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Kick returns
| NIU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DeAree Rogers #1 | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 18 | 0 |
 Malik Armstrong #14 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 18 | 0 |
Punt returns
| NIU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DeAree Rogers #1 | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 2 | 0 |
Kicking
| NIU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ryan Short #39 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/2 | 1 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/2 | 1 |
Punting
| NIU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jake Ference #36 | 3 | 99 | 33.0 | 0 | 1 | 34 |
| Team | 3 | 99 | 33.0 | 0 | 1 | 34 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NIU | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 24 | 14 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 4-12 | 3-15 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-4 | 3-3 |
| Total Yards | 400 | 316 |
| Passing | 259 | 231 |
| Comp/Att | 26/36 | 16/27 |
| Yards per pass | 7.2 | 8.6 |
| Rushing | 141 | 85 |
| Rushing Attempts | 38 | 33 |
| Yards per rush | 3.7 | 2.6 |
| Penalties | 6-60 | 4-34 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 31:46 | 28:14 |
At lock NIU 20.28–31.11 SJSU · 1.1 pts under 52.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitTaron Dickens · NIU
26/36 C/ATT · 259 YDSDaniel Rolovich · SJSU
16/27 C/ATT · 231 YDSElijah Porter · NIU
12 CAR · 79 YDSViliami Teu · SJSU
17 CAR · 42 YDSDeAree Rogers · NIU
6 REC · 86 YDSDominique McKenzie · SJSU
2 REC · 71 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
N Illinois vs San José St pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 52.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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