South Florida Bulls at East Carolina Pirates
Final · ESPN2
17–20
At lock: projected USF 22.35–21.73 ECU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 6:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 723739961
- Winner: South Florida (51%)
- Spread: USF +2.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 39.5 (68%)
- Score error (both teams)8
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: USF vs ECU
The model
How this number was built
USF 22.35–21.73 ECU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexECU -3.7 vs USF -3.2 · pred margin +1.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.5 vs +7.4 · model ECU 23.4–26.2 USF
- Home field+3.0 pts to ECU
- RecordECU 5-4 · USF 6-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ECU -1.5 / total 39.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USF | 7 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| ECU | 0 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 20 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 10:257–0
Bryson Rodgers 26 Yd pass from Luke Kromenhoek (Nico Gramatica Kick)
- FGQ2 9:307–3
Noah Perez 44 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 1:1110–3
Nico Gramatica 30 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 0:3110–10
Landon Sides 15 Yd pass from Emory Williams (Noah Perez Kick)
- TDQ3 6:2410–17
Landon Sides 8 Yd pass from Emory Williams (Noah Perez Kick)
- TDQ4 9:4217–17
Jason Collins Jr. 1 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)
- FGQ4 0:0017–20
Andrew Conrad 55 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| USF | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Luke Kromenhoek #17 | 17/21 | 179 | 8.5 | 1 | 0 | 32.5 |
Team | 0/1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 17/22 | 179 | 8.1 | 1 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| USF | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D.J. Crowther #5 | 17 | 111 | 6.5 | 0 | 25 |
 Jason Collins Jr. #2 | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 | 11 |
Luke Kromenhoek #17 | 15 | 19 | 1.3 | 0 | 16 |
| Team | 37 | 150 | 4.1 | 1 | 25 |
Receiving
| USF | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bryson Rodgers #1 | 5 | 50 | 10.0 | 1 | 26 |
D.J. Crowther #5 | 3 | 42 | 14.0 | 0 | 28 |
 Cameron Seldon #0 | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 | 23 |
 Evan Dangler #47 | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 | 27 |
Jason Collins Jr. #2 | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | 8 |
 Mudia Reuben #6 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
 Wyatt Sullivan #8 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 6 |
| Team | 17 | 179 | 10.5 | 1 | 28 |
Fumbles
| USF | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Amarion Fortenberry #8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| USF | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Grayson Howard #0 | 13 | 3 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C.J. Hicks #1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tavin Ward #2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ayden Jackson #5 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zavier Hamilton #25 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Michael Williams II #4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Israel Boyce #9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Teddy Foster #16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jabari Smith #12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sam Robinson #7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Amarion Fortenberry #8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Terrell Jones #90 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Asani Redwood #11 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jair Murphy #31 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Terry Simmons Jr. #56 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ryan Jenkins #28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Major Dillard #77 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ashton Mosley #33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Gavin Leach #40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
D.J. Crowther #5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Marcus Williams #98 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Marshon Oxley #45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 88 | 24 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Punt returns
| USF | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Joshua Porter #80 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 7 | 0 |
Kicking
| USF | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nico Gramatica #7 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 30 | 2/2 | 5 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 30 | 2/2 | 5 |
Punting
| USF | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Luke Goater #39 | 7 | 325 | 46.4 | 0 | 2 | 56 |
| Team | 7 | 325 | 46.4 | 0 | 2 | 56 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| USF | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 19 | 25 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 1-10 | 6-15 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 329 | 361 |
| Passing | 179 | 223 |
| Comp/Att | 17/22 | 26/39 |
| Yards per pass | 8.1 | 5.7 |
| Rushing | 150 | 138 |
| Rushing Attempts | 37 | 33 |
| Yards per rush | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| Penalties | 6-54 | 5-35 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 31:17 | 28:43 |
At lock USF 22.35–21.73 ECU · USF by 0.6 pts vs USF +1.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissLuke Kromenhoek · USF
17/21 C/ATT · 179 YDSEmory Williams · ECU
19/27 C/ATT · 175 YDSD.J. Crowther · USF
17 CAR · 111 YDSAshton Gray · ECU
18 CAR · 101 YDSBryson Rodgers · USF
5 REC · 50 YDSLandon Sides · ECU
14 REC · 126 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
South Florida vs East Carolina pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is USF +1.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day