NCAAFFinalNotre Dame Stadium

Boston College Eagles at #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Final · NBC

7–41

Boston CollegeNotre Dame

Final

Boston College Eagles

4-6 · L3

204 PF · 284 PA

Final

#3Notre Dame Fighting Irish

9-1 · W3

395 PF · 138 PA

BC 3%ND 97%

At lock: projected BC 10.82–41.58 ND

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 3:20 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3228019856

Winner called · off by 5

Most typical sim

BC 11 – ND 42

Final

BC 7 – ND 41

Winner: Notre Dame (97%)
Spread: ND -29.5 covers (53%)
Total: Over 52.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)5

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BC vs ND

The model

How this number was built

BC 10.82–41.58 ND · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ND +27.2 vs BC -3.7 · pred margin +30.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +16.3 vs -2.0 · model ND 42.5–10.8 BC
Home field
+3.0 pts to ND
Record
ND 9-1 · BC 4-6
Market prior
Blended 66% toward ND -29.5 / total 51.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
BC	0	0	7	0	7
ND	7	24	7	3	41

How the points were scored

TDQ1 6:250–7
Micah Gilbert 26 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Spencer Porath Kick)
TDQ2 8:530–14
Nolan James Jr. 10 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)
TDQ2 2:320–21
Jonaz Walton 1 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)
TDQ2 1:510–28
Jaylen Sneed 1 Yd Fumble Return (Spencer Porath Kick)
FGQ2 0:000–31
Spencer Porath 40 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 13:407–31
Bo MacCormack III 3 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)
TDQ3 10:247–38
Jordan Faison 13 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Spencer Porath Kick)
FGQ4 12:027–41
Spencer Porath 37 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

BC	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	INT	QBR
Mason McKenzie #10	8/21	51	2.4	1	9.0
Femi Babalola #11	0/3	0	0.0	0	4.9
Team	8/24	51	2.1	1	--

Rushing

BC	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Mekhi Dodd #29	6	45	7.5	0	19
Bo MacCormack III #24	7	29	4.1	1	8
Mason McKenzie #10	14	10	0.7	0	9
Nolan Ray #2	1	4	4.0	0	4
Johnathan Montague Jr. #8	1	1	1.0	0	1
Femi Babalola #11	4	-4	-1.0	0	3
Team	33	85	2.6	1	19

Receiving

BC	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Bo MacCormack III #24	3	20	6.7	14
Dawson Pough #3	1	16	16.0	16
Javarius Green #4	3	13	4.3	6
Zeke Moore #48	1	2	2.0	2
Team	8	51	6.4	16

Fumbles

BC	FUM	LOST	REC
Mason McKenzie #10	2	1	0
Nedrick Boldin Jr. #16	0	0	1
Team	2	1	1

Defense

BC	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Anthony Palano #1	11	6	0	0	0	0
Kemori Dixon #42	8	4	0	0	0	0
Marcus Upton #5	8	4	0	0	0	0
Charlie Comella #32	7	4	0	0	0	0
KP Price #2	4	2	1	1	0	0
Christian Hudson #55	4	1	0	0	0	0
Carter Davis #7	3	1	0	0	0	0
Syair Torrence #10	2	2	0	0	0	0
Micah Amedee #59	2	2	0	0	0	0
Marcelous Townsend #19	2	2	0	0	1	0
Ashton Cunningham #14	2	2	0	1	0	0
KJ Sampson #90	2	1	0	0	0	0
Bodie Kahoun #36	2	1	0	0	0	0
Israel Oladipupo #98	2	1	0	0	0	0
Kris Jones #4	2	0	0	0	0	0
Chris Marable Jr. #6	1	1	0	0	0	1
Kameron Howard #18	1	1	0	0	0	0
Chandler Jordan #35	1	1	0	0	0	0
Demetrius Ballard #13	1	1	0	0	0	0
Favor Bate #41	1	1	0	0	0	0
Steve Klein #51	1	1	0	0	0	0
E'Lla Boykin #56	1	1	0	0	0	0
Gavin Neil #93	1	1	0	0	0	0
Josiah Griffin #9	1	0	0	0	0	0
Max Tucker #3	1	0	0	0	0	0
TJ Green #0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Mac Fitzgerald #95	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	73	41	1	2	1	1

Interceptions

BC	INT	YDS	TD
KP Price #2	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Kick returns

BC	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Jackson Wade #83	3	52	17.3	20	0
Team	3	52	17.3	20	0

Punt returns

BC	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Charlie Comella #32	1	3	3.0	3	0
Team	1	3	3.0	3	0

Kicking

BC	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Luca Lombardo #99	0/0	0.0	0	1/1	1
Team	0/0	0.0	0	1/1	1

Punting

BC	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Bryce LaFollette #96	6	239	39.8	0	0	51
Team	6	239	39.8	0	0	51

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BC	ND
1st Downs	9	24
3rd down efficiency	2-14	9-14
4th down efficiency	0-4	0-1
Total Yards	136	500
Passing	51	224
Comp/Att	8/24	21/32
Yards per pass	2.1	7.0
Rushing	85	276
Rushing Attempts	33	40
Yards per rush	2.6	6.9
Penalties	4-30	9-66
Turnovers	2	2
Fumbles lost	1	1
Interceptions thrown	1	1
Possession	24:28	35:32

Lean · SpreadNot a strong playHit

ND -29.5

-112 at lock52%

Model projected BC 10.82 – 41.58 ND at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.1%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Mason McKenzie · BC
8/21 C/ATT · 51 YDS
CJ Carr · ND
20/28 C/ATT · 217 YDS
Mekhi Dodd · BC
6 CAR · 45 YDS
Jonaz Walton · ND
15 CAR · 141 YDS
Bo MacCormack III · BC
3 REC · 20 YDS
Micah Gilbert · ND
5 REC · 86 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Boston College vs Notre Dame pick result · Nov 14, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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