Merrimack Warriors at #11 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Final · ACC Network
0–77
At lock: projected MRMK 7.46–50.68 WAKE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:15 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3295130332
- Winner: Wake Forest (100%)
- Spread: MRMK +47.5 covers (62%)
- Total: Over 58.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)35
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MRMK vs WAKE
The model
How this number was built
MRMK 7.46–50.68 WAKE · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +15.2 vs -6.6 · model WAKE 46.5–9.1 MRMK
- Home field+3.0 pts to WAKE
- RecordWAKE 8-1 · MRMK 4-6
- Market priorBlended 80% toward WAKE -46.5 / total 55.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRMK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| WAKE | 20 | 29 | 14 | 14 | 77 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 8:260–6
Ty Clark III 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- TDQ1 5:590–13
Carlos Hernandez 38 Yd pass from Steele Pizzella (Connor Calvert Kick)
- TDQ1 0:580–20
Carlos Hernandez 9 Yd pass from Steele Pizzella (Connor Calvert Kick)
- TDQ2 11:060–28
Jamar Searcy 3 Yd Run (Charlie Wingfield Run for Two-Point Conversion)
- TDQ2 7:570–35
Drayden Dickmann 6 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)
- TDQ2 5:030–42
Kam Shanks 30 Yd pass from Steele Pizzella (Connor Calvert Kick)
- TDQ2 1:230–49
Steele Pizzella 13 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)
- TDQ3 4:210–56
Drayden Dickmann 87 Yd pass from Gannon Jones (Connor Calvert Kick)
- TDQ3 1:230–63
Kam Shanks 79 Yd Punt Return (Connor Calvert Kick)
- TDQ4 6:080–70
Joshua Patterson 98 Yd Interception Return (Connor Calvert Kick)
- TDQ4 1:290–77
Ryan Henley 1 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| MRMK | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AJ Hairston Jr #8 | 11/27 | 80 | 3.0 | 0 | 1 | -- |
C Cole Meehan #7 | 5/8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 | -- |
| Team | 16/35 | 100 | 2.9 | 0 | 2 | -- |
Rushing
| MRMK | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DeMarcus McElroy #6 | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 | 10 |
M Michael Robinson #29 | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 | 8 |
S Stephon Patrick #10 | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 | 19 |
T Tafari Corson-James #24 | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 | 7 |
C Cole Meehan #7 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | 4 |
M Michael O'Connor #13 | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
C Cooper Lehman #2 | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 3 |
AJ Hairston Jr #8 | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 | 6 |
 Kenyon Massey #1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
G Galamama Mulbah #0 | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 38 | 102 | 2.7 | 0 | 19 |
Receiving
| MRMK | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A Austin Palmer #5 | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 | 17 |
S Stephon Patrick #10 | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | 7 |
 Ethan Crite #11 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 |
M Michael Robinson #29 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
DeMarcus McElroy #6 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
G Galamama Mulbah #0 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
Kenyon Massey #1 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
C Cooper Lehman #2 | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 16 | 100 | 6.3 | 0 | 17 |
Defense
| MRMK | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Micah Green #17 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
R Rajahn Cooper #5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Justin Wallace #12 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
L Logan Graham #46 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
D Danny Simms #7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jerrium Berry Jr #13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Juice Ricks #4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
D Dwayne Green Jr #8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
K Kamden Wyatt #1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
W Will Claude #15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
M Markeith Hogan #11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
D Darrell Hamilton #94 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
K Kendall Carter #0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
B Bertin Placide #3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J J.P. Methodius #41 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
X Xavier Maple #14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jordan Byron #28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
M Makai Young #43 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A Adrian Rufo #19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
G Garret Jackson #9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
C Corday Bethel #21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T Tylor Hunter #36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
L Logan Monteyne #58 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 48 | 34 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Punting
| MRMK | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M Mike Ryan #83 | 10 | 430 | 43.0 | 0 | 2 | 52 |
| Team | 10 | 430 | 43.0 | 0 | 2 | 52 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MRMK | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 11 | 31 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 3-19 | 4-7 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Total Yards | 202 | 730 |
| Passing | 100 | 546 |
| Comp/Att | 16/35 | 27/33 |
| Yards per pass | 2.9 | 16.5 |
| Rushing | 102 | 184 |
| Rushing Attempts | 38 | 28 |
| Yards per rush | 2.7 | 6.6 |
| Penalties | 8-74 | 11-115 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 0 |
| Possession | 36:40 | 23:20 |
At lock MRMK 7.46–50.68 WAKE · WAKE by 43.2 pts vs MRMK +47.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissAJ Hairston Jr · MRMK
11/27 C/ATT · 80 YDSSteele Pizzella · WAKE
23/28 C/ATT · 432 YDSDeMarcus McElroy · MRMK
9 CAR · 26 YDSAustin Palmer · MRMK
5 REC · 48 YDSJack Foley · WAKE
6 REC · 162 YDSMicah Green · MRMK
8 TOT · 5 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Merrimack vs Wake Forest pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MRMK +47.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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