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ATPLMatHP4:30 AM CTATPRAFatALE7:00 AM CTNationsMNEatCYP8:00 AM CTNationsARMatLVA8:00 AM CTNFLNEatDET8:30 AM CTWTAALEatDIL8:30 AM CTWTASAMatMAR8:30 AM CTWTAVALatZHI10:00 AM CTWTACAMatARI10:00 AM CTNCAABABABACatFGCU11:00 AM CTNCAABQUINatCCSU11:00 AM CTNationsALBatBLR11:00 AM CT
Board/NCAAF
NCAAFFinalGerald J. Ford Stadium

Virginia Tech Hokies at #25 SMU Mustangs

Final · ESPN

Virginia Tech28–51SMU
Virginia TechSMU
Final
Virginia Tech Hokies
6-3 · L2
330 PF · 255 PA
28
Final
Final
#25SMU Mustangs
7-2 · L1
340 PF · 255 PA
51
VT 33%SMU 67%

At lock: projected VT 24.13–31.27 SMU

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 6:00 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3530164093

Winner called · off by 24
Most typical sim
VT 24 – SMU 31
Final
VT 28 – SMU 51
  • Winner: SMU (68%)
  • Spread: SMU -6.5 covers (53%)
  • Total: Under 56.5 (54%)
  • Score error (both teams)24

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: VT vs SMU

The model

How this number was built

VT 24.13–31.27 SMU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

  • Power index
    SMU +11.9 vs VT +4.8 · pred margin +7.6
  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +9.2 vs +3.6 · model SMU 35.1–23.1 VT
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to SMU
  • Record
    SMU 7-2 · VT 6-3
  • Market prior
    Blended 66% toward SMU -6 / total 57.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
VT01401428
SMU1013141451

How the points were scored

  • TDQ1 12:220–7

    Dramekco Green 12 Yd Run (Brendan Baird Kick)

  • FGQ1 3:000–10

    Brendan Baird 47 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ2 12:097–10

    Ethan Grunkemeyer 1 Yd Run (John Love Kick)

  • FGQ2 8:327–13

    Brendan Baird 26 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ2 6:097–20

    Yamir Knight 46 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Brendan Baird Kick)

  • TDQ2 2:2214–20

    Jeffrey Overton Jr. 22 Yd Run (John Love Kick)

  • FGQ2 0:0314–23

    Brendan Baird 50 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ3 9:1014–30

    Kendrick Raphael 3 Yd Run (Brendan Baird Kick)

  • TDQ3 4:2614–37

    Yamir Knight 13 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Brendan Baird Kick)

  • TDQ4 9:1514–44

    Yamir Knight 5 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Brendan Baird Kick)

  • TDQ4 6:2922–44

    Jeffrey Overton Jr. 2 Yd Run (Ethan Grunkemeyer Run for Two-Point Conversion)

  • TDQ4 3:3028–44

    Que'Sean Brown 3 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

  • TDQ4 3:1328–51

    Jalen Cooper 50 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Brendan Baird Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

VTC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Ethan Grunkemeyer
#17
28/382917.71163.8
Team28/382917.711--

Rushing

VTCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Jeffrey Overton Jr.
#16
131239.5238
Marcellous Hawkins Jr.
#27
273.508
Ethan Grunkemeyer
#17
11-1-0.1114
Team
1-1-1.000
Que'Sean Brown
#3
1-2-2.000
Team281264.5338

Receiving

VTRECYDSAVGTDLONG
Luke Reynolds
#85
66711.2029
Ayden Greene
#0
24924.5032
Que'Sean Brown
#3
9374.1112
Jeffrey Overton Jr.
#16
4338.3017
D
Davion Brown
#11
23216.0017
Marlion Jackson
#5
22814.0016
Marcellous Hawkins Jr.
#27
22512.5023
Tyseer Denmark
#4
12020.0020
Team2829110.4132

Fumbles

VTFUMLOSTREC
Ethan Grunkemeyer
#17
110
Team110

Defense

VTTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Noah Chambers
#16
11400.5000
Kaleb Spencer
#3
10400.5000
Keon Wylie
#33
7500000
DQ Smith
#11
7300000
Quentin Reddish
#0
6200000
Curtis Jones Jr.
#30
4101.5000
Cam Chadwick Jr.
#20
4000000
Tyson Flowers
#1
3200000
Cortez Harris
#34
310.51.5010
Jaquez White
#2
3100000
Aycen Stevens
#42
300.50.5010
Sheldon Robinson
#14
2100000
Terry Wiggins
#39
2101000
Jason Abbey
#31
2001000
Kenny Woseley Jr.
#22
1100000
Marlion Jackson
#5
1100000
Isaiah Brown-Murray
#9
1000000
Elhadj Fall
#94
1000000
Gerard Johnson III
#55
1000.5100
Joshua Clarke
#5
1000000
Javion Hilson
#40
1000000
Eric Mensah
#45
1000000
Team752717120

Interceptions

VTINTYDSTD
Brennan Johnson
#15
1220
Team1220

Kick returns

VTNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Jeffrey Overton Jr.
#16
11919.0190
Team11919.0190

Kicking

VTFGPCTLONGXPPTS
John Love
#17
0/00.002/22
Team0/00.002/22

Punting

VTNOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Nathan Totten
#95
314749.00256
Team314749.00256

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

VTSMU
1st Downs2326
3rd down efficiency7-128-12
4th down efficiency1-20-0
Total Yards417569
Passing291350
Comp/Att28/3824/32
Yards per pass7.710.9
Rushing126219
Rushing Attempts2836
Yards per rush4.56.1
Penalties4-454-32
Turnovers21
Fumbles lost10
Interceptions thrown11
Possession28:4331:17
Computer pick · Total
Under 55.5
52%

At lock VT 24.13–31.27 SMU · 0.1 pts under 55.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss
Players

  • Ethan Grunkemeyer · VT

    28/38 C/ATT · 291 YDS

  • Kevin Jennings · SMU

    24/32 C/ATT · 350 YDS

  • Jeffrey Overton Jr. · VT

    13 CAR · 123 YDS

  • Christian Rhodes · SMU

    7 CAR · 92 YDS

  • Luke Reynolds · VT

    6 REC · 67 YDS

  • Yamir Knight · SMU

    6 REC · 103 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Virginia Tech vs SMU pick result · Nov 6, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 55.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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