#7 Alabama Crimson Tide at #24 LSU Tigers
Final · ABC
31–13
At lock: projected ALA 23.80–28.51 LSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 3:10 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2316370864
- Winner: LSU (62%)
- Spread: ALA +6 covers (51% vs 47%, push 2%)
- Total: Under 52.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)23
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ALA vs LSU
The model
How this number was built
ALA 23.80–28.51 LSU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexLSU +22.5 vs ALA +26.0 · pred margin +3.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +11.0 vs +13.2 · model LSU 25.3–25.5 ALA
- Home field+3.0 pts to LSU
- RecordLSU 6-3 · ALA 7-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward LSU -6 / total 54.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 3 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
| LSU | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 10:403–0
Conor Talty 43 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ1 4:483–3
Scott Starzyk 23 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 8:2310–3
Ryan Coleman-Williams 1 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)
- FGQ3 11:4310–6
Scott Starzyk 41 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 2:4410–13
Dilin Jones 5 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)
- TDQ3 0:3617–13
Josh Ford 7 Yd pass from Keelon Russell (Conor Talty Kick)
- TDQ4 9:4424–13
Cederian Morgan 25 Yd pass from Keelon Russell (Conor Talty Kick)
- TDQ4 6:2331–13
Kaleb Edwards 4 Yd pass from Keelon Russell (Conor Talty Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| ALA | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Keelon Russell #12 | 17/24 | 206 | 8.6 | 3 | 0 | 90.2 |
| Team | 17/24 | 206 | 8.6 | 3 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| ALA | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trae'shawn Brown #17 | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 | 10 |
Keelon Russell #12 | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 | 10 |
 Daniel Hill #4 | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 | 9 |
 Ryan Coleman-Williams #1 | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 | 9 |
Team | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 29 | 79 | 2.7 | 1 | 10 |
Receiving
| ALA | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rico Scott #7 | 3 | 67 | 22.3 | 0 | 57 |
 Kaleb Edwards #81 | 3 | 50 | 16.7 | 1 | 25 |
 Cederian Morgan #8 | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 1 | 25 |
 Josh Ford #40 | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 1 | 8 |
Ryan Coleman-Williams #1 | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | 8 |
Daniel Hill #4 | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 7 |
 Lotzeir Brooks #3 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
 Marshall Pritchett #9 | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | 5 |
Trae'shawn Brown #17 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Team | 17 | 206 | 12.1 | 3 | 57 |
Fumbles
| ALA | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Noah Rogers #5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| ALA | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Luke Metz #4 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bray Hubbard #18 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Red Morgan #6 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Caleb Woodson #7 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Carmelo O'Neal #28 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dijon Lee Jr. #5 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Xavier Griffin #11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Justin Hill #8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Yhonzae Pierre #0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Chuck McDonald III #19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Terrance Green #99 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Fatutoa Henry #14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Devan Thompkins #1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Keon Sabb #3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 QB Reese #36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 London Simmons #90 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zabien Brown #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ivan Taylor #13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Jireh Edwards #10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kedrick Bingley-Jones #22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jah-Marien Latham #20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Isaia Faga #88 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 84 | 46 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
Interceptions
| ALA | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Luke Metz #4 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 28 | 0 |
Punt returns
| ALA | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ryan Coleman-Williams #1 | 1 | 32 | 32.0 | 32 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 32 | 32.0 | 32 | 0 |
Kicking
| ALA | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Conor Talty #31 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 43 | 4/4 | 7 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 43 | 4/4 | 7 |
Punting
| ALA | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alex Asparuhov #32 | 5 | 248 | 49.6 | 0 | 1 | 51 |
| Team | 5 | 248 | 49.6 | 0 | 1 | 51 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ALA | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 13 | 27 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 3-11 | 5-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 0-4 |
| Total Yards | 285 | 457 |
| Passing | 206 | 380 |
| Comp/Att | 17/24 | 35/48 |
| Yards per pass | 8.6 | 7.9 |
| Rushing | 79 | 77 |
| Rushing Attempts | 29 | 33 |
| Yards per rush | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| Penalties | 7-44 | 4-40 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 27:15 | 32:45 |
At lock ALA 23.80–28.51 LSU · 0.2 pts under 52.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitKeelon Russell · ALA
17/24 C/ATT · 206 YDSSam Leavitt · LSU
35/47 C/ATT · 380 YDSTrae'shawn Brown · ALA
11 CAR · 35 YDSDilin Jones · LSU
17 CAR · 56 YDSRico Scott · ALA
3 REC · 67 YDSJackson Harris · LSU
11 REC · 166 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Alabama vs LSU pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 52.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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