Western Illinois Leathernecks at Valparaiso Beacons
Final · ESPN+
58–80Last shot · Rajan Roberts misses 13-foot jumper
At lock: projected WIU 63.19–79.57 VAL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 10370210
- Winner: Valparaiso (93%)
- Spread: WIU +18.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Over 142.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)5
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
WIU 63.19–79.57 VAL · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseVAL +0.0 off · WIU +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to VAL
- Market priorBlended 86% toward VAL -18.5 / total 139.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIU | 19 | 39 | 58 |
| VAL | 38 | 42 | 80 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:2151–70
Jack Riley makes free throw 1 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 4:0753–70
Daivion Traylor makes 5-foot dunk (Jack Riley assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:4753–72
Carter Hopoi makes 3-foot dunk (Rajan Roberts assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:4253–74
JT Pettigrew makes 10-foot floating jump shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:1653–76
JT Pettigrew makes layup
- FT2nd Half 2:0554–76
Davee Flowers makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:2454–78
Kobe Walker makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:5755–78
Shay Stephens makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5756–78
Shay Stephens makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5356–79
Rajan Roberts makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5356–80
Rajan Roberts makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:1258–80
Makai Kvamme makes 2-foot dunk (Jordan Cain assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| WIU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D D. Traylor F · #15 | 28 | 14 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
 J. Riley F · #1 | 36 | 11 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
M M. Biembongo F · #21 | 16 | 5 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
T T. Moore G · #5 | 10 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
H H. Vaughn G · #2 | 26 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
S S. Higgins F · #32 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
I I. Davis F · #12 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 D. Stephens F · #23 | 19 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
S S. Stephens G · #11 | 11 | 4 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
J J. Cain G · #10 | 11 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
D D. Flowers G · #0 | 13 | 6 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
 M. Kvamme G · #13 | 26 | 13 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
A A. Konate G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 58 | 20-51 | 4-14 | 14-23 | 30 | 10 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 27 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WIU | VAL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 20-51 | 24-50 |
| FG% | 39 | 48 |
| 3PT | 4-14 | 4-16 |
| 3P% | 29 | 25 |
| FT | 14-23 | 28-43 |
| FT% | 61 | 65 |
| REB | 30 | 38 |
| OR | 8 | 11 |
| DR | 22 | 27 |
| AST | 10 | 11 |
| STL | 5 | 7 |
| BLK | 2 | 5 |
| TO | 16 | 9 |
| TTO | 2 | 2 |
| ToTO | 16 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 16 |
| FBPs | 8 | 9 |
| PIP | 32 | 36 |
| PF | 27 | 20 |
| LL | 4 | 26 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 12 | 84 |
At lock WIU 63.19–79.57 VAL · VAL by 16.4 pts vs WIU +18.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissD. Traylor · WIU
28 MIN · 14 PTSC. Hopoi · VAL
25 MIN · 8 PTSJT Pettigrew · VAL
STAT · 24 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-11 FG · 0-2 3PTMakai Kvamme · WIU
STAT · 26 MIN · 13 PTS · 6-7 FG · 1-1 FTRajan Roberts · VAL
STAT · 22 MIN · 13 PTS · 3-8 FG · 0-2 3PTJack Riley · WIU
STAT · 36 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-7 FG · 2-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
W Illinois vs Valparaiso pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is WIU +18.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day