Valparaiso Beacons at Purdue Boilermakers
Final/2OT · BTN
83–80Last shot · Justus McNair makes 25-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected VAL 64.90–81.96 PUR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3347060910
- Winner: Purdue (93%)
- Spread: VAL +19.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Over 146.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)20
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
VAL 64.90–81.96 PUR · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defensePUR +16.8 off · VAL +9.1 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to PUR
- RecordPUR 0-2 · VAL 2-0
- Market priorBlended 85% toward PUR -19.5 / total 144.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAL | 20 | 38 | 12 | 13 | 83 |
| PUR | 32 | 26 | 12 | 10 | 80 |
Scoring plays
- FT2OT 4:2673–72
Rakim Chaney makes free throw 1 of 1
- FT2OT 4:0173–73
C.J. Cox makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2OT 4:0173–74
C.J. Cox makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2OT 3:4874–74
Justus McNair makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2OT 2:5476–74
Justus McNair makes driving layup
- FT2OT 2:5477–74
Justus McNair makes free throw 1 of 1
- FT2OT 2:1277–75
C.J. Cox makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2OT 2:1277–76
C.J. Cox makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2OT 0:3977–78
Daniel Jacobsen makes 4-foot dunk (C.J. Cox assists)
- JUMPSHOT2OT 0:2580–78
JT Pettigrew makes 26-foot three point jumper (Justus McNair assists)
- JUMPSHOT2OT 0:0580–80
Daniel Jacobsen makes 8-foot hook shot (Jack Benter assists)
- JUMPSHOT2OT 0:0083–80
Justus McNair makes 25-foot three point jumper
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| VAL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Hopoi F · #13 | 25 | 8 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
 JT Pettigrew F · #7 | 31 | 11 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
 R. Chaney G · #2 | 41 | 35 | 14-22 | 4-8 | 3-4 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 |
 J. McNair G · #1 | 44 | 17 | 7-13 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
 B. Alocen G · #4 | 33 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 H. Scroggins F · #14 | 7 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 K. Yu C · #12 | 19 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
 T. Garrett G · #23 | 17 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 R. Roberts G · #0 | 12 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 S. Servilus G · #44 | 21 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 G. Richardson F · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Walker F · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Curry II G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Moles G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Webster G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Lombardi G · #32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 83 | 33-71 | 7-27 | 10-16 | 37 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 25 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| VAL | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 33-71 | 24-64 |
| FG% | 46 | 38 |
| 3PT | 7-27 | 5-28 |
| 3P% | 26 | 18 |
| FT | 10-16 | 27-32 |
| FT% | 63 | 84 |
| REB | 37 | 46 |
| OR | 10 | 13 |
| DR | 27 | 33 |
| AST | 12 | 19 |
| STL | 5 | 7 |
| BLK | 3 | 0 |
| TO | 9 | 11 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 9 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 7 |
| FBPs | 5 | 2 |
| PIP | 36 | 36 |
| PF | 25 | 17 |
| LL | 3 | 15 |
| LC | 10 | 10 |
| LPCT | 9 | 75 |
At lock VAL 64.90–81.96 PUR · PUR by 17.1 pts vs VAL +19.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
HitC. Hopoi · VAL
25 MIN · 8 PTSC. Pierce · PUR
41 MIN · 2 PTSRakim Chaney · VAL
STAT · 41 MIN · 35 PTS · 14-22 FG · 4-8 3PTDaniel Jacobsen · PUR
STAT · 42 MIN · 28 PTS · 9-13 FG · 10-12 FTJustus McNair · VAL
STAT · 44 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-13 FG · 1-4 3PTC.J. Cox · PUR
STAT · 40 MIN · 13 PTS · 3-7 FG · 0-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Valparaiso vs Purdue pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is VAL +19.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day