Toledo Rockets at Michigan State Spartans
Final · Peacock
61–91Last shot · Carlos Medlock Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Matthew Watkins assists)
At lock: projected TOL 66.03–89.11 MSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 6:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4063843950
- Winner: Michigan St (98%)
- Spread: TOL +26.5 covers (61%)
- Total: Under 155.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)7
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
TOL 66.03–89.11 MSU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMSU +23.8 off · TOL +25.2 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MSU
- RecordMSU 2-0 · TOL 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward MSU -25.5 / total 155.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 25 | 36 | 61 |
| MSU | 48 | 43 | 91 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:4352–80
Rashaun Porter makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:4353–80
Rashaun Porter makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2953–83
Carlos Medlock Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Scott assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:4653–84
Kaleb Glenn makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:4653–85
Kaleb Glenn makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:3455–85
Jaylohn Allen makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1155–88
Jasiah Jervis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Carlos Medlock Jr. assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:0456–88
Rashaun Porter makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2359–88
Manny Johnson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Rashaun Porter assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:3060–88
Rashaun Porter makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3061–88
Rashaun Porter makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:1361–91
Carlos Medlock Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Matthew Watkins assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| TOL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Ouwinga F · #32 | 25 | 10 | 3-12 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 C. Riddle F · #10 | 24 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 M. Strong G · #5 | 26 | 11 | 5-14 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 A. Montas Jr. G · #9 | 26 | 8 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
 S. Jones G · #1 | 20 | 9 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
 R. Porter F · #24 | 15 | 9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7-10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 T. Nwokolo F · #0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Barron F · #23 | 19 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Allen G · #7 | 20 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
 M. Mattucci G · #3 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 M. Johnson G · #2 | 2 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 W. James Jr. G · #11 | 21 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
 A. Parks C · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 61 | 19-57 | 5-21 | 18-29 | 27 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 25 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TOL | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 19-57 | 29-57 |
| FG% | 33 | 51 |
| 3PT | 5-21 | 10-24 |
| 3P% | 24 | 42 |
| FT | 18-29 | 23-38 |
| FT% | 62 | 61 |
| REB | 27 | 52 |
| OR | 9 | 16 |
| DR | 18 | 36 |
| AST | 9 | 22 |
| STL | 8 | 8 |
| BLK | 3 | 3 |
| TO | 12 | 14 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 12 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 17 |
| FBPs | 14 | 20 |
| PIP | 24 | 36 |
| PF | 25 | 24 |
| LL | 2 | 33 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 2 | 96 |
At lock TOL 66.03–89.11 MSU · MSU by 23.1 pts vs TOL +26.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. Ouwinga · TOL
25 MIN · 10 PTSJ. Scott · MSU
26 MIN · 12 PTSJasiah Jervis · MSU
STAT · 26 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-9 FG · 4-7 3PTJeremy Fears Jr. · MSU
STAT · 25 MIN · 12 PTS · 3-7 FG · 0-4 3PTMynor Strong · TOL
STAT · 26 MIN · 11 PTS · 5-14 FG · 0-4 3PTCoen Carr · MSU
STAT · 22 MIN · 10 PTS · 3-6 FG · 1-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Toledo vs Michigan St pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is TOL +26.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day