North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Winthrop Eagles
Final · ESPN+
93–90Last shot · Spence Sims misses 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected UND 75.31–83.90 WIN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4047904974
- Winner: Winthrop (77%)
- Spread: UND +9.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 159.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)23
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UND 75.31–83.90 WIN · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseWIN +19.1 off · UND +13.5 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to WIN
- RecordWIN 0-2 · UND 1-1
- Market priorBlended 71% toward WIN -9.5 / total 159.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UND | 42 | 51 | 93 |
| WIN | 45 | 45 | 90 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:4985–81
Andrija Radojevic makes free throw 2 of 2
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 2:4485–83
Seifeldin Hendawy makes 0-foot tip in layup
- FT2nd Half 2:3486–83
Luke Winkel makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3487–83
Luke Winkel makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:1887–85
Seifeldin Hendawy makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:2589–85
Luke Winkel makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1189–87
Anthony Smith III makes 4-foot floating jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3989–90
Spence Sims makes 23-foot three point jumper (Seifeldin Hendawy assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:3090–90
Luke Winkel makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3091–90
Luke Winkel makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1492–90
Luke Winkel makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1493–90
Luke Winkel makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UND | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Jones C · #22 | 18 | 7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 L. Winkel G · #14 | 26 | 16 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 10-11 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 C. Evanson G · #0 | 33 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
 S. Hincapie G · #12 | 35 | 24 | 9-15 | 1-6 | 5-6 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
 Z. Kraft G · #1 | 18 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 D. Ely F · #52 | 8 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 A. Radojevic F · #15 | 14 | 15 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 7-7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Thomas F · #8 | 12 | 7 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
 Z. Parks G · #23 | 22 | 10 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 5-7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
 J. Moore G · #2 | 14 | 5 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 K. Ouse F · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Hanson G · #32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Dungey G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Wagner G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 93 | 28-62 | 3-20 | 34-41 | 38 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UND | WIN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 28-62 | 33-64 |
| FG% | 45 | 52 |
| 3PT | 3-20 | 11-29 |
| 3P% | 15 | 38 |
| FT | 34-41 | 13-23 |
| FT% | 83 | 57 |
| REB | 38 | 35 |
| OR | 18 | 15 |
| DR | 20 | 20 |
| AST | 10 | 13 |
| STL | 8 | 6 |
| BLK | 3 | 4 |
| TO | 11 | 15 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 11 | 15 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 26 | 17 |
| FBPs | 15 | 18 |
| PIP | 50 | 42 |
| PF | 21 | 28 |
| LL | 8 | 14 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 42 | 53 |
At lock UND 75.31–83.90 WIN · WIN by 8.6 pts vs UND +9.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitJ. Jones · UND
18 MIN · 7 PTSG. Natsvlishvili · WIN
12 MIN · 6 PTSSpence Sims · WIN
STAT · 34 MIN · 25 PTS · 9-13 FG · 7-11 3PTSamuel Hincapie · UND
STAT · 35 MIN · 24 PTS · 9-15 FG · 1-6 3PTLuke Winkel · UND
STAT · 26 MIN · 16 PTS · 3-6 FG · 0-1 3PTAndrija Radojevic · UND
STAT · 14 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-6 FG · 7-7 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
North Dakota vs Winthrop pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UND +9.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day