Eastern Illinois Panthers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Final · ACCNX
70–94Last shot · Markus Blackwell makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected EIU 57.50–83.78 ND
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 9:01 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 110790887
- Winner: Notre Dame (99%)
- Spread: EIU +28.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Under 141.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)22
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
EIU 57.50–83.78 ND · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseND +12.2 off · EIU +5.2 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ND
- RecordND 3-0 · EIU 0-3
- Market priorBlended 84% toward ND -28.5 / total 139.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EIU | 33 | 37 | 70 |
| ND | 46 | 48 | 94 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:1762–84
Devin Brown makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:1762–85
Devin Brown makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:1063–85
Jaden Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:1064–85
Jaden Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:5664–87
Yoro Diallo makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:2164–89
Logan Imes makes layup
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 2:4366–89
Tanner Vogel makes 0-foot tip in layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:3066–91
Logan Imes makes 19-foot step back jumpshot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1268–91
Markus Blackwell makes 17-foot step back jumpshot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5368–94
Logan Imes makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nick Shrewsberry assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:2369–94
Markus Blackwell makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2370–94
Markus Blackwell makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| EIU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G. Welch F · #11 | 29 | 13 | 4-10 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 D. Ntambwe F · #7 | 21 | 6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
 D. Burton F · #24 | 33 | 23 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 11-11 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 J. Miller G · #3 | 18 | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
 JT Elder G · #5 | 10 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Austin F · #15 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 T. Vogel C · #6 | 19 | 9 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 2-7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
 J. Wright G · #12 | 22 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
 S. Francis G · #8 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Davenport G · #2 | 27 | 7 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 M. Blackwell G · #1 | 19 | 6 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 E. Hillsman F · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Kurtz G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Calloway G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Sims G · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 70 | 21-41 | 6-13 | 22-28 | 23 | 14 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| EIU | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 21-41 | 33-56 |
| FG% | 51 | 59 |
| 3PT | 6-13 | 11-24 |
| 3P% | 46 | 46 |
| FT | 22-28 | 17-24 |
| FT% | 79 | 71 |
| REB | 23 | 26 |
| OR | 3 | 7 |
| DR | 20 | 19 |
| AST | 14 | 20 |
| STL | 6 | 17 |
| BLK | 2 | 4 |
| TO | 23 | 12 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 23 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 17 | 28 |
| FBPs | 3 | 19 |
| PIP | 24 | 36 |
| PF | 19 | 23 |
| LL | 11 | 27 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 11 | 87 |
At lock EIU 57.50–83.78 ND · ND by 26.3 pts vs EIU +28.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
HitG. Welch · EIU
29 MIN · 13 PTSB. Koehler · ND
26 MIN · 14 PTSDemar Burton · EIU
STAT · 33 MIN · 23 PTS · 6-8 FG · 0-1 3PTLogan Duncomb · ND
STAT · 21 MIN · 20 PTS · 9-9 FG · 2-5 FTBraeden Smith · ND
STAT · 27 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-8 FG · 1-1 3PTEthan Roberts · ND
STAT · 25 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-9 FG · 3-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
E Illinois vs Notre Dame pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is EIU +28.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day