Princeton Tigers at Siena Saints
Final · ESPN+
68–82Last shot · Tan Yildizoglu misses driving layup
At lock: projected PRIN 76.28–77.11 SIE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 8:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 80706625
- Winner: Siena (53%)
- Spread: PRIN +1.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Under 154.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
PRIN 76.28–77.11 SIE · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSIE +19.6 off · PRIN +7.3 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to SIE
- RecordSIE 1-1 · PRIN 2-1
- Market priorBlended 71% toward PRIN -2.5 / total 153.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PRIN | 29 | 39 | 68 |
| SIE | 39 | 43 | 82 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:1958–70
Reid Ducharme makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:0161–70
Jack Stanton makes 22-foot three point jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:4961–72
Tim Ibukunoluwa makes layup (Trent Egbiremolen assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:1161–74
Tim Ibukunoluwa makes layup (Pace Prosser assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 3:2661–76
Tim Ibukunoluwa makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:0663–76
Jack Stanton makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5663–78
Trent Egbiremolen makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:1665–78
Louis O'Keefe makes driving layup
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:0865–80
Tim Ibukunoluwa makes 3-foot dunk (Trent Egbiremolen assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:4165–81
Trent Egbiremolen makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2865–82
Owen Schlager makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5368–82
Jake Sussberg makes 24-foot three point jumper (Peyton Seals assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| PRIN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Huggins F · #12 | 15 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 M. Abdullahi F · #7 | 20 | 8 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
 J. Stanton G · #21 | 32 | 16 | 6-14 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
 D. Davis G · #3 | 28 | 0 | 0-10 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 J. Hicke G · #33 | 34 | 18 | 5-16 | 0-2 | 8-9 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
 C. McSweeney F · #15 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 CJ Happy F · #4 | 8 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Hammond F · #24 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 C. Kirkpatrick G · #30 | 12 | 5 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 E. Sabec G · #5 | 9 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
 L. O'Keefe G · #0 | 7 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 S. Whitfield G · #23 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Sussberg G · #1 | 1 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 P. Seals G · #2 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 L. Clark G · #8 | 28 | 7 | 3-9 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
 W. Kutzler F · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 W. Higgs C · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Cohen G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Mandes G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Mueller G · #66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Z. Kim G · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 68 | 25-73 | 7-33 | 11-18 | 43 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 25 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| PRIN | SIE | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 25-73 | 31-58 |
| FG% | 34 | 53 |
| 3PT | 7-33 | 5-18 |
| 3P% | 21 | 28 |
| FT | 11-18 | 15-25 |
| FT% | 61 | 60 |
| REB | 43 | 44 |
| OR | 18 | 10 |
| DR | 25 | 34 |
| AST | 16 | 19 |
| STL | 8 | 6 |
| BLK | 2 | 5 |
| TO | 11 | 15 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 11 | 15 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 18 | 13 |
| FBPs | 8 | 1 |
| PIP | 34 | 52 |
| PF | 22 | 16 |
| LL | 0 | 19 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 97 |
At lock PRIN 76.28–77.11 SIE · 1.1 pts under 154.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitJ. Huggins · PRIN
15 MIN · 4 PTSP. Prosser · SIE
35 MIN · 20 PTSTim Ibukunoluwa · SIE
STAT · 28 MIN · 30 PTS · 12-12 FG · 6-10 FTJackson Hicke · PRIN
STAT · 34 MIN · 18 PTS · 5-16 FG · 0-2 3PTJack Stanton · PRIN
STAT · 32 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-14 FG · 4-12 3PTTrent Egbiremolen · SIE
STAT · 35 MIN · 9 PTS · 2-7 FG · 0-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Princeton vs Siena pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 154.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day