Long Beach State Beach at Montana State Bobcats
Final · ESPN+
70–83Last shot · Jaden Tengan makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected LBSU 68.89–78.33 MTST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2695885991
- Winner: Montana St (79%)
- Spread: LBSU +10.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 147.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)5
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
LBSU 68.89–78.33 MTST · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMTST +7.6 off · LBSU +5.4 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MTST
- RecordMTST 1-1 · LBSU 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward MTST -10.5 / total 145.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LBSU | 32 | 38 | 70 |
| MTST | 41 | 42 | 83 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:4962–74
Jeremiah Davis makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:1164–74
Yohann Sissoko makes layup (Jack Payne assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:0564–77
Howie Keene makes 27-foot three point jumper (Christian King assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:4666–77
Jack Payne makes layup (Max Vanlaningham assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:3066–78
Jaden Steppe makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3066–79
Jaden Steppe makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0768–79
Jaden Tengan makes 15-foot step back jumpshot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5568–81
Jeremiah Davis makes layup (Darnez Slater assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:0968–82
Jeremiah Davis makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0968–83
Jeremiah Davis makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0169–83
Jaden Tengan makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0170–83
Jaden Tengan makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| LBSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Vanlaningham F · #33 | 32 | 5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
 JJ Gray G · #25 | 14 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 Y. Sissoko G · #3 | 23 | 14 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 6-9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 M. Adams G · #4 | 24 | 14 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 J. Payne G · #7 | 34 | 17 | 6-13 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
 B. Wright F · #14 | 23 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 H. Lau F · #6 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Tengan G · #0 | 24 | 15 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 6-7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 C. Jones G · #24 | 24 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 G. Brcic F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 JJ Chaikovsky F · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Smith F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Amenhauser C · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Bahr G · #88 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Chung G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 70 | 22-46 | 3-14 | 23-31 | 23 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LBSU | MTST | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-46 | 30-58 |
| FG% | 48 | 52 |
| 3PT | 3-14 | 11-28 |
| 3P% | 21 | 39 |
| FT | 23-31 | 12-17 |
| FT% | 74 | 71 |
| REB | 23 | 39 |
| OR | 3 | 12 |
| DR | 20 | 27 |
| AST | 7 | 12 |
| STL | 6 | 5 |
| BLK | 1 | 1 |
| TO | 9 | 12 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 9 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 17 |
| FBPs | 7 | 10 |
| PIP | 30 | 36 |
| PF | 18 | 26 |
| LL | 0 | 19 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 98 |
At lock LBSU 68.89–78.33 MTST · MTST by 9.4 pts vs LBSU +10.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissM. Vanlaningham · LBSU
32 MIN · 5 PTSC. King · MTST
29 MIN · 12 PTSJack Payne · LBSU
STAT · 34 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-13 FG · 1-3 3PTJeremiah Davis · MTST
STAT · 24 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-8 FG · 1-2 3PTJaden Tengan · LBSU
STAT · 24 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-9 FG · 1-4 3PTYohann Sissoko · LBSU
STAT · 23 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-7 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Long Beach St vs Montana St pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is LBSU +10.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day