Montana Grizzlies at Oregon Ducks
Final · BTN
69–87Last shot · Fred Payne misses 5-foot floating jump shot
At lock: projected MONT 67.92–84.30 ORE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1074593128
- Winner: Oregon (92%)
- Spread: MONT +18.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Under 153.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)3
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MONT 67.92–84.30 ORE · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseORE +0.0 off · MONT +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ORE
- Market priorBlended 86% toward ORE -19.5 / total 151.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MONT | 31 | 38 | 69 |
| ORE | 40 | 47 | 87 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 7:2661–72
Jordan Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 6:1361–74
Malique Ewin makes layup (Wei Lin assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 5:5961–76
Tyrone Riley IV makes 2-foot dunk
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:3364–76
Jordan Clark makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brown assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:1364–78
Andrew Meadow makes layup (Malique Ewin assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:2264–80
Wei Lin makes 18-foot step back jumpshot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:5267–80
Jalen Brown makes 24-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2267–83
Wei Lin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Meadow assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:5368–83
Jordan Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:5369–83
Jordan Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:4769–85
Malique Ewin makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:1169–87
Andrew Meadow makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MONT | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Mpiana F · #21 | 22 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
 J. Clark G · #3 | 38 | 19 | 5-11 | 3-8 | 6-6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
 J. Brown G · #0 | 30 | 19 | 6-12 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 C. Dick G · #10 | 26 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
 T. Thompson G · #2 | 38 | 14 | 5-9 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 J. Sanders F · #1 | 12 | 6 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 S. Carter G · #11 | 16 | 9 | 3-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 N. Bendinger G · #7 | 3 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 L. Rudolph G · #8 | 13 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 G. Dutro G · #22 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 K. Aguino F · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Jedkins F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Pridgen G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Haggins G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Anderson Jr. G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 69 | 22-58 | 13-30 | 12-14 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MONT | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-58 | 35-58 |
| FG% | 38 | 60 |
| 3PT | 13-30 | 5-11 |
| 3P% | 43 | 45 |
| FT | 12-14 | 12-19 |
| FT% | 86 | 63 |
| REB | 26 | 37 |
| OR | 7 | 7 |
| DR | 19 | 30 |
| AST | 16 | 21 |
| STL | 6 | 6 |
| BLK | 5 | 3 |
| TO | 10 | 9 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 10 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 16 |
| FBPs | 16 | 15 |
| PIP | 14 | 54 |
| PF | 18 | 14 |
| LL | 8 | 18 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 15 | 83 |
At lock MONT 67.92–84.30 ORE · ORE by 16.4 pts vs MONT +18.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitC. Mpiana · MONT
22 MIN · 0-3 FGA. Meadow · ORE
27 MIN · 14 PTSJordan Clark · MONT
STAT · 38 MIN · 19 PTS · 5-11 FG · 3-8 3PTJalen Brown · MONT
STAT · 30 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-12 FG · 3-4 3PTTyrone Riley IV · ORE
STAT · 33 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-11 FG · 1-2 3PTTyler Thompson · MONT
STAT · 38 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-9 FG · 4-8 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Montana vs Oregon pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MONT +18.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day