James Madison Dukes at Kentucky Wildcats
Final · SEC Network
80–89Last shot · Garrett Sundra makes 27-foot three point jumper (K.J. Windham assists)
At lock: projected JMU 67.71–89.93 UK
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3593602228
- Winner: Kentucky (97%)
- Spread: JMU +25.5 covers (61%)
- Total: Over 157.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
JMU 67.71–89.93 UK · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUK +18.3 off · JMU +7.9 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UK
- RecordUK 2-0 · JMU 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward UK -23.5 / total 156.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| JMU | 39 | 41 | 80 |
| UK | 39 | 50 | 89 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:2870–81
Brandon Lee makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:2871–81
Brandon Lee makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:4871–82
Alex Wilkins makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:4871–83
Alex Wilkins makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:4671–85
Braydon Hawthorne makes layup (Mason Williams assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:4173–85
Brandon Lee makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 2:4174–85
Brandon Lee makes free throw 1 of 1
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:5974–87
Braydon Hawthorne makes 1-foot dunk (Alex Wilkins assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1377–87
Paul Jones III makes 27-foot three point jumper (K.J. Windham assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:0977–88
Alex Wilkins makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0977–89
Alex Wilkins makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0980–89
Garrett Sundra makes 27-foot three point jumper (K.J. Windham assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| JMU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 P. Fowler F · #13 | 27 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 G. Sundra F · #12 | 25 | 15 | 5-7 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 B. Lee G · #15 | 29 | 26 | 7-14 | 2-5 | 10-13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 A. Myers G · #4 | 23 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
 K.J. Windham G · #24 | 25 | 6 | 2-11 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 J. Hogarth F · #5 | 14 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
 A. Meeks G · #6 | 18 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 G. Lattimore G · #11 | 15 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 P. Jones III G · #1 | 24 | 12 | 4-9 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 AJ Evans F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Brown F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Curtis F · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Owens G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Jones G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Reilly G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 80 | 27-68 | 15-45 | 11-15 | 36 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 22 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| JMU | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 27-68 | 32-63 |
| FG% | 40 | 51 |
| 3PT | 15-45 | 10-28 |
| 3P% | 33 | 36 |
| FT | 11-15 | 15-19 |
| FT% | 73 | 79 |
| REB | 36 | 40 |
| OR | 14 | 11 |
| DR | 22 | 29 |
| AST | 19 | 14 |
| STL | 4 | 6 |
| BLK | 1 | 4 |
| TO | 7 | 7 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 7 | 7 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 4 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 13 |
| FBPs | 10 | 20 |
| PIP | 20 | 40 |
| PF | 17 | 13 |
| LL | 2 | 14 |
| LC | 18 | 18 |
| LPCT | 10 | 83 |
At lock JMU 67.71–89.93 UK · UK by 22.2 pts vs JMU +25.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
HitP. Fowler · JMU
27 MIN · 5 PTSO. N'Diaye · UK
17 MIN · 3 PTSBrandon Lee · JMU
STAT · 29 MIN · 26 PTS · 7-14 FG · 2-5 3PTAlex Wilkins · UK
STAT · 22 MIN · 16 PTS · 4-8 FG · 2-3 3PTZoom Diallo · UK
STAT · 22 MIN · 16 PTS · 7-11 FG · 1-2 3PTGarrett Sundra · JMU
STAT · 25 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-7 FG · 4-6 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
James Madison vs Kentucky pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is JMU +25.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day