Florida Gulf Coast Eagles at UCF Knights
Final/OT · ESPN+
95–96Last shot · Dior Johnson misses free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected FGCU 66.20–86.02 UCF
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 926079795
- Winner: UCF (96%)
- Spread: FGCU +22.5 covers (60%)
- Total: Under 153.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)39
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
FGCU 66.20–86.02 UCF · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUCF +0.0 off · FGCU +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UCF
- Market priorBlended 86% toward UCF -22.5 / total 153.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FGCU | 38 | 44 | 13 | 95 |
| UCF | 36 | 46 | 14 | 96 |
Scoring plays
- DUNKSHOTOT 2:5884–89
Bryson Lucas makes 5-foot dunk
- JUMPSHOTOT 2:3787–89
Bryson Lucas makes 25-foot three point jumper
- FTOT 2:1587–90
Dior Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOTOT 1:5990–90
Bryson Lucas makes 27-foot three point jumper
- FTOT 1:0690–91
Dior Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 1:0690–92
Dior Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
- FTOT 0:5191–92
BB Washington makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 0:5192–92
BB Washington makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOTOT 0:3692–94
Dior Johnson makes driving layup
- FTOT 0:1792–95
Dior Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 0:1792–96
Dior Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOTOT 0:0595–96
Chase Konieczny makes 30-foot three point jumper (Turk Brown III assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| FGCU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 B. Lucas F · #5 | 30 | 25 | 10-17 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
 C. Konieczny F · #23 | 42 | 15 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
 J. Houser C · #44 | 31 | 20 | 6-10 | 3-7 | 5-6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 |
 T. Brown III G · #1 | 37 | 9 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
 D. Williams G · #2 | 28 | 15 | 5-12 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
 G. Tanner F · #3 | 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 CJ Outlaw F · #45 | 14 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 M. McCarthy G · #4 | 16 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
 BB Washington G · #8 | 16 | 7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 7-7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 G. Washington III G · #10 | 5 | 4 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 K. Wheatley F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Westercamp F · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Barlow F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Guillouette C · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Sermpezis G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Brooks G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 95 | 29-64 | 12-33 | 25-27 | 37 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 27 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FGCU | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 29-64 | 31-58 |
| FG% | 45 | 53 |
| 3PT | 12-33 | 9-18 |
| 3P% | 36 | 50 |
| FT | 25-27 | 25-38 |
| FT% | 93 | 66 |
| REB | 37 | 27 |
| OR | 12 | 6 |
| DR | 25 | 21 |
| AST | 17 | 16 |
| STL | 4 | 5 |
| BLK | 1 | 5 |
| TO | 13 | 9 |
| TTO | 2 | 1 |
| ToTO | 13 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 1 | 25 |
| FBPs | 9 | 13 |
| PIP | 26 | 34 |
| PF | 27 | 21 |
| LL | 5 | 12 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 10 | 77 |
At lock FGCU 66.20–86.02 UCF · UCF by 19.8 pts vs FGCU +22.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitB. Lucas · FGCU
30 MIN · 25 PTSI. Malone · UCF
14 MIN · 3 PTSDior Johnson · UCF
STAT · 35 MIN · 41 PTS · 13-15 FG · 4-4 3PTJustin Houser · FGCU
STAT · 31 MIN · 20 PTS · 6-10 FG · 3-7 3PTLewis Walker · UCF
STAT · 34 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-10 FG · 2-4 3PTChase Konieczny · FGCU
STAT · 42 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-11 FG · 1-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
FGCU vs UCF pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is FGCU +22.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day