Purdue Boilermakers at Gonzaga Bulldogs
Final · TNT
72–78Last shot · Omer Mayer makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected PUR 75.24–78.95 GONZ
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3391845335
- Winner: Gonzaga (63%)
- Spread: PUR +4.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 154.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)9
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
PUR 75.24–78.95 GONZ · Medium confidence
Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexGONZ +17.3 vs PUR +12.3 · pred margin +6.0
- Attack / defenseGONZ +0.0 off · PUR +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to GONZ
- Market priorBlended 72% toward GONZ -5.5 / total 153.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PUR | 33 | 39 | 72 |
| GONZ | 36 | 42 | 78 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 1:2166–72
Xaivian Lee makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0967–72
Antione West Jr makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:3269–72
Caden Pierce makes 3-foot dunk
- FT2nd Half 0:2769–73
Davis Fogle makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2769–74
Davis Fogle makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2070–74
Antione West Jr makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2071–74
Antione West Jr makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1971–75
Javon Bennett makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1971–76
Javon Bennett makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0871–77
Xaivian Lee makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0871–78
Xaivian Lee makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0372–78
Omer Mayer makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| PUR | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Pierce F · #8 | 29 | 7 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
 D. Jacobsen C · #12 | 27 | 22 | 9-11 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 |
 O. Mayer G · #17 | 25 | 8 | 2-11 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 C.J. Cox G · #0 | 36 | 11 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 G. Harris G · #24 | 28 | 8 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
 E. Shahrvin F · #18 | 8 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 R. Burgess F · #34 | 5 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 L. Ertel G · #2 | 10 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 A. West Jr G · #1 | 20 | 10 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 J. Benter G · #14 | 11 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
 R. Knight F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. King F · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Huan C · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Webber G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Lusk G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Rayl G · #32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 72 | 26-55 | 5-21 | 15-21 | 31 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| PUR | GONZ | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 26-55 | 23-53 |
| FG% | 47 | 43 |
| 3PT | 5-21 | 6-16 |
| 3P% | 24 | 38 |
| FT | 15-21 | 26-34 |
| FT% | 71 | 76 |
| REB | 31 | 34 |
| OR | 7 | 10 |
| DR | 24 | 24 |
| AST | 17 | 15 |
| STL | 5 | 4 |
| BLK | 2 | 1 |
| TO | 10 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 10 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 14 |
| FBPs | 6 | 14 |
| PIP | 28 | 28 |
| PF | 22 | 19 |
| LL | 2 | 11 |
| LC | 9 | 9 |
| LPCT | 5 | 87 |
At lock PUR 75.24–78.95 GONZ · 0.3 pts under 154.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitC. Pierce · PUR
29 MIN · 7 PTSB. Huff · GONZ
36 MIN · 10 PTSDaniel Jacobsen · PUR
STAT · 27 MIN · 22 PTS · 9-11 FG · 4-5 FTDavis Fogle · GONZ
STAT · 34 MIN · 22 PTS · 6-18 FG · 1-5 3PTXaivian Lee · GONZ
STAT · 29 MIN · 18 PTS · 4-7 FG · 3-4 3PTC.J. Cox · PUR
STAT · 36 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-11 FG · 1-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Purdue vs Gonzaga pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 154.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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