Fairfield Stags at Bryant Bulldogs
Final · ESPN+
68–59Last shot · Andre Pasha misses 28-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected FAIR 72.32–72.26 BRY
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 8:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1520938241
- Winner: Bryant (64%)
- Score error (both teams)16
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
FAIR 72.32–72.26 BRY · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseBRY +9.8 off · FAIR +10.6 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to BRY
- RecordBRY 1-2 · FAIR 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward FAIR -1.5 / total 145.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FAIR | 26 | 42 | 68 |
| BRY | 30 | 29 | 59 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 1:3661–53
Ty Tabales makes free throw 2 of 3
- FT2nd Half 1:3262–53
Jah Hatchett makes free throw 1 of 2
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 1:1262–55
Duane Thompson makes 0-foot tip in layup
- FT2nd Half 0:5963–55
Halon Rawlins makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5964–55
Halon Rawlins makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5064–57
Duane Thompson makes layup (Andre Pasha assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4265–57
Declan Wucherpfennig makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4266–57
Declan Wucherpfennig makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2266–58
Keegan Harvey makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2266–59
Keegan Harvey makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0867–59
Tony Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0868–59
Tony Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| FAIR | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 P. Smith F · #33 | 17 | 6 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 D. Wucherpfennig G · #44 | 35 | 17 | 5-14 | 0-1 | 7-10 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
 H. Rawlins G · #4 | 26 | 7 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 T. Williams G · #8 | 26 | 14 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 E. Mejia G · #1 | 9 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
B B. Jones F · #25 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 I. Munkadi F · #15 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 Q. Martin F · #12 | 20 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
J J. Brown G · #11 | 16 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
J J. Hatchett G · #3 | 26 | 4 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
C C. Edelen G · #0 | 17 | 12 | 4-6 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 M. Radunovic F · #88 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
O O. Sacko F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Rodriguez G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Ostop G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Ganton G · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Best G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 68 | 23-57 | 5-9 | 17-27 | 36 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 27 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FAIR | BRY | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-57 | 21-54 |
| FG% | 40 | 39 |
| 3PT | 5-9 | 9-36 |
| 3P% | 56 | 25 |
| FT | 17-27 | 8-17 |
| FT% | 63 | 47 |
| REB | 36 | 42 |
| OR | 9 | 10 |
| DR | 27 | 32 |
| AST | 8 | 13 |
| STL | 17 | 1 |
| BLK | 0 | 8 |
| TO | 9 | 20 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 9 | 20 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 28 | 5 |
| FBPs | 18 | 0 |
| PIP | 30 | 24 |
| PF | 18 | 21 |
| LL | 14 | 6 |
| LC | 8 | 8 |
| LPCT | 50 | 43 |
At lock FAIR 72.32–72.26 BRY · FAIR by 0.1 pts vs BRY +1.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissP. Smith · FAIR
17 MIN · 6 PTSR. Behar · BRY
21 MIN · 5 PTSDeclan Wucherpfennig · FAIR
STAT · 35 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-14 FG · 0-1 3PTTony Williams · FAIR
STAT · 26 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-8 FG · 0-1 3PTCole Edelen · FAIR
STAT · 17 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-6 FG · 4-4 3PTAndre Pasha · BRY
STAT · 32 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-10 FG · 2-6 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Fairfield vs Bryant pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is BRY +1.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day