Merrimack Warriors at App State Mountaineers
Final · YouTube
49–63Last shot · Denver Anglin misses 24-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected MRMK 69.21–66.67 APP
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3132980554
- Winner: Merrimack (60%)
- Spread: APP +3.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 134.5 (60%)
- Score error (both teams)25
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MRMK 69.21–66.67 APP · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseAPP +0.0 off · MRMK +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to APP
- Market priorBlended 86% toward MRMK -3.5 / total 133.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRMK | 21 | 28 | 49 |
| APP | 43 | 20 | 63 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 11:1934–55
JP Skoric makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 9:2837–55
Rocco Westfield makes 24-foot three point jumper (Todd Brogna assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 8:3239–55
Jacob Moore makes layup (JP Skoric assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 7:3139–58
Jaylen Colon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ted Neal assists)
- FT2nd Half 7:0039–59
Chad Moodie makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 6:4341–59
Elijah Wilborn makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:4343–59
Denver Anglin makes driving layup (Elijah Wilborn assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:1544–59
Elijah Wilborn makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:2046–59
Jeremiah Anderson makes driving layup
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:0846–61
Rrezon Elezaj makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Ted Neal assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4349–61
AJ Lesburt Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ayden Johnson assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:1649–63
Da'Mori Lytch makes 2-foot dunk (Jaylen Colon assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MRMK | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T. Brogna F · #20 | 19 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
 E. Wilborn F · #5 | 21 | 7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
 A. Johnson G · #3 | 26 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 AJ Lesburt Jr. G · #33 | 35 | 10 | 3-10 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 D. Anglin G · #2 | 31 | 10 | 4-14 | 1-7 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 JP Skoric F · #10 | 11 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
 J. Moore F · #14 | 16 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 D. Veillette F · #0 | 12 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
 R. Westfield G · #13 | 9 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Anderson G · #1 | 20 | 4 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 D. Munro F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Guerra G · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Vladimir Soqui Urbano G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Q. Kwasniak G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Dorset G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 49 | 19-54 | 5-18 | 6-12 | 30 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 17 | 13 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MRMK | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 19-54 | 21-50 |
| FG% | 35 | 42 |
| 3PT | 5-18 | 8-30 |
| 3P% | 28 | 27 |
| FT | 6-12 | 13-20 |
| FT% | 50 | 65 |
| REB | 30 | 42 |
| OR | 13 | 16 |
| DR | 17 | 26 |
| AST | 7 | 15 |
| STL | 9 | 6 |
| BLK | 3 | 2 |
| TO | 10 | 14 |
| TTO | 1 | 2 |
| ToTO | 10 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 21 | 21 |
| FBPs | 7 | 9 |
| PIP | 26 | 18 |
| PF | 13 | 12 |
| LL | 0 | 23 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 97 |
At lock MRMK 69.21–66.67 APP · MRMK by 2.5 pts vs APP +3.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitT. Brogna · MRMK
19 MIN · 2 PTST. Neal · APP
25 MIN · 12 PTSJaylen Colon · APP
STAT · 38 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-14 FG · 4-13 3PTBen Kopetzki · APP
STAT · 38 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-13 FG · 3-8 3PTAJ Lesburt Jr. · MRMK
STAT · 35 MIN · 10 PTS · 3-10 FG · 2-4 3PTDenver Anglin · MRMK
STAT · 31 MIN · 10 PTS · 4-14 FG · 1-7 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Merrimack vs App State pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is APP +3.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day