Howard Bison at Pennsylvania Quakers
Final · ESPN+
65–78Last shot · Cedric Taylor III misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
At lock: projected HOW 76.50–81.36 PENN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1341584405
- Winner: Penn (67%)
- Spread: HOW +5.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 158.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)16
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
HOW 76.50–81.36 PENN · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defensePENN +16.2 off · HOW +15.1 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to PENN
- RecordPENN 1-1 · HOW 1-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward PENN -6.5 / total 155.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOW | 31 | 34 | 65 |
| PENN | 25 | 53 | 78 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:5857–70
TJ Power makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:1557–72
TJ Power makes layup
- FT2nd Half 4:0258–72
Calvin Robins Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:0259–72
Calvin Robins Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:4759–74
Lucas Lueth makes layup (TJ Power assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:1561–74
Drew Harris makes 3-foot dunk (Cam Gillus assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4364–74
Cam Gillus makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cedric Taylor III assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:1165–74
Cam Gillus makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4965–75
AJ Levine makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4965–76
AJ Levine makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2565–77
AJ Levine makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2565–78
AJ Levine makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| HOW | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G. Kocevar C · #6 | 15 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
 J. Brown C · #13 | 23 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
 C. Taylor III G · #12 | 37 | 12 | 5-16 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
 C. Gillus G · #2 | 35 | 17 | 4-9 | 2-3 | 7-10 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
 A. Cotton G · #4 | 16 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 Ju. Johnson F · #7 | 3 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
J J. Lawson F · #8 | 17 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 C. Robins Jr. F · #21 | 6 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
D D. Harris F · #1 | 33 | 15 | 6-7 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
 Je. Johnson G · #10 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 B. Powell G · #3 | 11 | 4 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 R. Smith G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Frazier G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Brown G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 O. Okojie G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 65 | 23-61 | 8-23 | 11-16 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 25 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| HOW | PENN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-61 | 26-57 |
| FG% | 38 | 46 |
| 3PT | 8-23 | 10-24 |
| 3P% | 35 | 42 |
| FT | 11-16 | 16-23 |
| FT% | 69 | 70 |
| REB | 37 | 38 |
| OR | 12 | 10 |
| DR | 25 | 28 |
| AST | 16 | 15 |
| STL | 11 | 10 |
| BLK | 6 | 8 |
| TO | 21 | 18 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 21 | 18 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 16 |
| FBPs | 20 | 16 |
| PIP | 30 | 28 |
| PF | 22 | 20 |
| LL | 14 | 17 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 57 | 42 |
At lock HOW 76.50–81.36 PENN · PENN by 4.9 pts vs HOW +5.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissG. Kocevar · HOW
15 MIN · 0-3 FGA. Gerhart · PENN
13 MIN · 2 PTSTJ Power · PENN
STAT · 37 MIN · 23 PTS · 8-19 FG · 6-12 3PTCam Gillus · HOW
STAT · 35 MIN · 17 PTS · 4-9 FG · 2-3 3PTSir Mohammed · PENN
STAT · 21 MIN · 17 PTS · 4-6 FG · 1-2 3PTDrew Harris · HOW
STAT · 33 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-7 FG · 3-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Howard vs Penn pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is HOW +5.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day