Mercer Bears at Georgia Southern Eagles
Final/OT · ESPN+
97–91Last shot · Shane Cherry makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected MER 80.77–82.86 GASO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1493801263
- Winner: GA Southern (57%)
- Spread: GASO -1.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 163.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)24
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MER 80.77–82.86 GASO · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseGASO +7.6 off · MER +6.7 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to GASO
- RecordGASO 1-2 · MER 2-2
- Market priorBlended 70% toward GASO -1.5 / total 165.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MER | 39 | 39 | 19 | 97 |
| GASO | 46 | 32 | 13 | 91 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOTOT 1:3989–85
Quinton Perkins II makes 25-foot three point jumper
- FTOT 0:5790–85
Shane Cherry makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 0:5791–85
Shane Cherry makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOTOT 0:3491–87
Jeromy Davis makes layup
- FTOT 0:1792–87
Makoi Mabor Makoi makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 0:1793–87
Makoi Mabor Makoi makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOTOT 0:1193–89
Eltramon Smith makes 3-foot dunk
- FTOT 0:0994–89
Quinton Perkins II makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 0:0995–89
Quinton Perkins II makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOTOT 0:0495–91
Truman Claytor IV makes layup
- FTOT 0:0396–91
Shane Cherry makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 0:0397–91
Shane Cherry makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MER | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Mabor Makoi F · #35 | 36 | 15 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
 D. Goodman G · #23 | 26 | 8 | 3-13 | 1-10 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
 KJ Lamonte G · #1 | 17 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 B. Shoulders G · #11 | 38 | 12 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
 Q. Perkins II G · #3 | 39 | 23 | 9-20 | 1-8 | 4-4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 K. Boyd F · #18 | 33 | 16 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 3-5 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
 P. Padegimas F · #12 | 2 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 K. Steele F · #25 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 S. Cherry G · #2 | 30 | 16 | 4-15 | 0-7 | 8-9 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
 D. Kovacevic F · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Mayhugh F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Jackson G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 H. Lyttle G · #16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Barr G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Cate G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Koveos G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 97 | 35-82 | 6-35 | 21-30 | 47 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 27 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MER | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 35-82 | 29-72 |
| FG% | 43 | 40 |
| 3PT | 6-35 | 14-33 |
| 3P% | 17 | 42 |
| FT | 21-30 | 19-23 |
| FT% | 70 | 83 |
| REB | 47 | 40 |
| OR | 20 | 13 |
| DR | 27 | 27 |
| AST | 15 | 10 |
| STL | 10 | 6 |
| BLK | 4 | 7 |
| TO | 12 | 16 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 12 | 16 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 19 | 8 |
| FBPs | 15 | 7 |
| PIP | 50 | 26 |
| PF | 18 | 23 |
| LL | 6 | 13 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 14 | 75 |
At lock MER 80.77–82.86 GASO · GASO by 2.1 pts vs GASO -1.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
MissM. Mabor Makoi · MER
36 MIN · 15 PTSC. Crissman · GASO
13 MIN · 8 PTSDallas Gardner · GASO
STAT · 41 MIN · 28 PTS · 8-18 FG · 0-3 3PTQuinton Perkins II · MER
STAT · 39 MIN · 23 PTS · 9-20 FG · 1-8 3PTTruman Claytor IV · GASO
STAT · 37 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-17 FG · 5-11 3PTKaron Boyd · MER
STAT · 33 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-9 FG · 1-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Mercer vs GA Southern pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is GASO -1.5, with a 50% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day