Morehead State Eagles at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Final · ESPN+
58–83Last shot · Clayton Parker makes 0-foot tip in layup
At lock: projected MORE 68.35–83.87 WKU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 642518194
- Winner: Western KY (92%)
- Spread: MORE +17.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Under 153.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)11
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MORE 68.35–83.87 WKU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseWKU +0.0 off · MORE +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to WKU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward WKU -17.5 / total 153.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MORE | 28 | 30 | 58 |
| WKU | 38 | 45 | 83 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 8:3146–72
Teagan Moore makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 7:0946–74
Gabe Weis makes layup (Sharron Young assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 6:1146–76
Moussa Konare makes 2-foot dunk (Sharron Young assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:4448–76
Clayton Parker makes layup (Kyrell Shaw assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:5651–76
Izaiah Day makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jarvis Wright assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:0351–78
Sharron Young makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:0451–80
Joseph Adebayo makes layup (Gabe Weis assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:4451–83
Noah Norgaard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Lawson Rice assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:2852–83
Clayton Parker makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2853–83
Clayton Parker makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5756–83
Jace Winkleman makes 25-foot three point jumper (Justin Payne assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 0:1958–83
Clayton Parker makes 0-foot tip in layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MORE | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T. Tangiora F · #42 | 20 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
 D. Alexander F · #25 | 21 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 V. Dawson III G · #5 | 23 | 5 | 2-10 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
 I. Day G · #23 | 14 | 7 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 C. Dawson G · #10 | 30 | 13 | 5-9 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 C. Parker F · #33 | 22 | 12 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
 J. Priester F · #15 | 13 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
 K. Carbon G · #2 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Payne G · #1 | 20 | 4 | 2-8 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 J. Wright G · #11 | 9 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 K. Shaw G · #7 | 12 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 J. Winkleman G · #12 | 2 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 D. Cunningham G · #22 | 13 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 L. Bass Jr. F · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Gillespie G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 58 | 21-58 | 7-32 | 9-12 | 35 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 11 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MORE | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 21-58 | 30-69 |
| FG% | 36 | 43 |
| 3PT | 7-32 | 10-28 |
| 3P% | 22 | 36 |
| FT | 9-12 | 13-15 |
| FT% | 75 | 87 |
| REB | 35 | 43 |
| OR | 9 | 13 |
| DR | 26 | 30 |
| AST | 11 | 17 |
| STL | 3 | 11 |
| BLK | 1 | 2 |
| TO | 13 | 6 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 6 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 8 | 16 |
| FBPs | 7 | 14 |
| PIP | 20 | 36 |
| PF | 11 | 9 |
| LL | 1 | 32 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 2 | 97 |
At lock MORE 68.35–83.87 WKU · WKU by 15.5 pts vs MORE +17.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissT. Tangiora · MORE
20 MIN · 2 PTSE. Erkins-Ford · WKU
14 MIN · 1 PTSTeagan Moore · WKU
STAT · 19 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-11 FG · 0-3 3PTGabe Weis · WKU
STAT · 17 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-9 FG · 2-5 3PTChase Dawson · MORE
STAT · 30 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-9 FG · 1-5 3PTSharron Young · WKU
STAT · 23 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-8 FG · 3-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Morehead St vs Western KY pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MORE +17.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day