Northern Illinois Huskies at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Final · ESPN+
75–94Last shot · Akiva McBirney-Griffin makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected NIU 70.64–83.51 TLSA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 6:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2487364736
- Winner: Tulsa (87%)
- Spread: NIU +14.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 154.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)14
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NIU 70.64–83.51 TLSA · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseTLSA +12.3 off · NIU +27.2 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to TLSA
- RecordTLSA 2-0 · NIU 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward TLSA -14.5 / total 154.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIU | 29 | 46 | 75 |
| TLSA | 56 | 38 | 94 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:3166–88
Chris Loofe makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:3166–89
Chris Loofe makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:2369–89
David Douglas Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Max Weisbrod assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:4970–89
Mykolas Ivanauskas makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:4971–89
Mykolas Ivanauskas makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:2271–91
Chris Loofe makes layup (Kobi Williams assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:2271–92
Chris Loofe makes free throw 1 of 1
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:0873–92
Mykolas Ivanauskas makes layup (Max Weisbrod assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:2673–93
Chris Loofe makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2673–94
Chris Loofe makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3074–94
Akiva McBirney-Griffin makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3075–94
Akiva McBirney-Griffin makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NIU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 B. Gross F · #32 | 20 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 T. Polite G · #10 | 25 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
 C. Hardrick G · #2 | 20 | 5 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3-5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 M. Weisbrod G · #6 | 31 | 20 | 7-11 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 D. Douglas Jr. G · #15 | 27 | 21 | 7-13 | 4-7 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
 M. Ivanauskas F · #5 | 16 | 12 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 J. Daugherty F · #9 | 16 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 A. McBirney-Griffin F · #70 | 8 | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 N. Ramus G · #14 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 K. Hanson G · #11 | 8 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 I. Larthridge G · #7 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 U. Buntyn G · #1 | 10 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 B. Basich G · #8 | 11 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 N. Carter-Smith G · #0 | 6 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 T. Samuels F · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Klesmit G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 75 | 24-56 | 11-29 | 16-19 | 26 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 26 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NIU | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-56 | 28-57 |
| FG% | 43 | 49 |
| 3PT | 11-29 | 14-34 |
| 3P% | 38 | 41 |
| FT | 16-19 | 24-34 |
| FT% | 84 | 71 |
| REB | 26 | 42 |
| OR | 4 | 14 |
| DR | 22 | 28 |
| AST | 15 | 11 |
| STL | 4 | 4 |
| BLK | 3 | 2 |
| TO | 6 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 6 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 8 |
| FBPs | 2 | 10 |
| PIP | 26 | 26 |
| PF | 26 | 21 |
| LL | 1 | 30 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 1 | 98 |
At lock NIU 70.64–83.51 TLSA · TLSA by 12.9 pts vs NIU +14.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
MissB. Gross · NIU
20 MIN · 0-5 FGM. Emory · TLSA
18 MIN · 1 PTSJaylen Lawal · TLSA
STAT · 27 MIN · 25 PTS · 7-10 FG · 5-7 3PTDavid Douglas Jr. · NIU
STAT · 27 MIN · 21 PTS · 7-13 FG · 4-7 3PTMax Weisbrod · NIU
STAT · 31 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-11 FG · 6-9 3PTMyles Rigsby · TLSA
STAT · 27 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-8 FG · 3-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
N Illinois vs Tulsa pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NIU +14.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day