St. Thomas Tommies at Presbyterian Blue Hose
Final · ESPN+
87–78Last shot · EJ Smith misses 10-foot floating jump shot
At lock: projected STMN 73.51–71.83 PRES
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2313226693
- Winner: St Thomas (56%)
- Spread: PRES +2.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 145.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)19
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
STMN 73.51–71.83 PRES · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defensePRES +0.0 off · STMN +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to PRES
- Market priorBlended 86% toward STMN -3.5 / total 144.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| STMN | 38 | 49 | 87 |
| PRES | 36 | 42 | 78 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 0:4481–71
Triston Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4481–72
Triston Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4382–72
Hayden Tibbits makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4383–73
Jaylen Peterson makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4383–72
Hayden Tibbits makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3783–74
Triston Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3783–75
Triston Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3284–75
Hayden Tibbits makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3285–75
Hayden Tibbits makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2685–78
EJ Smith makes 26-foot three pointer
- FT2nd Half 0:2386–78
Tim Franks makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2387–78
Tim Franks makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| STMN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Lorenz F · #33 | 30 | 16 | 6-12 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
 C. Bjerke F · #32 | 26 | 7 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 T. Franks G · #5 | 26 | 24 | 6-10 | 6-9 | 6-6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
 H. Tibbits G · #1 | 27 | 16 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 8-8 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 A. Herro G · #2 | 28 | 8 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
 C. Wilkins F · #21 | 16 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 K. Counts F · #24 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J J. Wilkinson G · #22 | 23 | 7 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
J J. Wade G · #11 | 16 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
B B. Madson G · #0 | 4 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 L. Momcilovic F · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
J J. Mitchell III G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Tauer G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Humphries Jr. G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Blue G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 87 | 28-51 | 12-24 | 19-21 | 28 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| STMN | PRES | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 28-51 | 27-60 |
| FG% | 55 | 45 |
| 3PT | 12-24 | 7-28 |
| 3P% | 50 | 25 |
| FT | 19-21 | 17-25 |
| FT% | 90 | 68 |
| REB | 28 | 31 |
| OR | 4 | 11 |
| DR | 24 | 20 |
| AST | 16 | 12 |
| STL | 4 | 5 |
| BLK | 1 | 4 |
| TO | 11 | 10 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 11 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 13 |
| FBPs | 11 | 19 |
| PIP | 32 | 34 |
| PF | 18 | 20 |
| LL | 13 | 4 |
| LC | 8 | 8 |
| LPCT | 73 | 10 |
At lock STMN 73.51–71.83 PRES · STMN by 1.7 pts vs PRES +2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. Lorenz · STMN
30 MIN · 16 PTSC. Chiakwelu · PRES
16 MIN · 5 PTSTim Franks · STMN
STAT · 26 MIN · 24 PTS · 6-10 FG · 6-9 3PTTriston Wilson · PRES
STAT · 37 MIN · 19 PTS · 3-10 FG · 1-6 3PTJaylen Peterson · PRES
STAT · 32 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-11 FG · 0-1 3PTEJ Smith · PRES
STAT · 25 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-11 FG · 4-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
St Thomas vs Presbyterian pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is PRES +2.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day