App State Mountaineers at Auburn Tigers
Final · SEC Network
53–75Last shot · Corbin Allen misses free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected APP 62.08–81.93 AUB
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 3:54 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 248283808
- Winner: Auburn (96%)
- Spread: APP +23.5 covers (63%)
- Total: Over 143.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)16
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
APP 62.08–81.93 AUB · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseAUB +10.4 off · APP +10.3 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to AUB
- RecordAUB 2-0 · APP 2-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward AUB -23.5 / total 143.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 36 | 17 | 53 |
| AUB | 38 | 37 | 75 |
Scoring plays
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 7:5946–61
Thomas Dowd makes 3-foot dunk (Adam Olsen assists)
- FT2nd Half 6:4446–62
Kevin Overton makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 6:1348–62
Da'Mori Lytch makes 8-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:5648–65
Tahaad Pettiford makes 27-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:5348–67
Tahaad Pettiford makes 10-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 3:5348–68
Tahaad Pettiford makes free throw 1 of 1
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:1748–70
Bukky Oboye makes 3-foot alley oop dunk (Tahaad Pettiford assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5051–70
Jaylen Colon makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrin Njock assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:5552–70
Jonathan Moss makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:5553–70
Jonathan Moss makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:2653–72
Caleb Williams makes driving layup (Thomas Dowd assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3253–75
Kevin Overton makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tahaad Pettiford assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| APP | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T. Neal F · #7 | 13 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
 C. Moodie F · #23 | 27 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
 J. Colon G · #9 | 36 | 11 | 3-12 | 3-11 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 |
 B. Kopetzki G · #5 | 27 | 7 | 3-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 E. Banks G · #4 | 31 | 19 | 7-15 | 3-9 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
D D. Lytch F · #6 | 21 | 8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
 A. Njock F · #21 | 9 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 R. Elezaj C · #12 | 10 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 M. Costello G · #3 | 7 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Moss G · #2 | 13 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 K. Vasser G · #0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Allen G · #13 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 H. Koffi G · #25 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 G. Clayton F · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Chretien C · #17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Love G · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. O'Kelley G · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Ledford G · #32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 53 | 18-56 | 7-28 | 10-16 | 35 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 22 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| APP | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 18-56 | 25-61 |
| FG% | 32 | 41 |
| 3PT | 7-28 | 8-24 |
| 3P% | 25 | 33 |
| FT | 10-16 | 17-23 |
| FT% | 63 | 74 |
| REB | 35 | 40 |
| OR | 13 | 16 |
| DR | 22 | 24 |
| AST | 8 | 11 |
| STL | 3 | 8 |
| BLK | 5 | 6 |
| TO | 11 | 6 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 11 | 6 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 2 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 3 | 15 |
| FBPs | 5 | 11 |
| PIP | 20 | 30 |
| PF | 18 | 16 |
| LL | 3 | 22 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 3 | 97 |
At lock APP 62.08–81.93 AUB · AUB by 19.9 pts vs APP +23.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
HitT. Neal · APP
13 MIN · 0-2 FGT. Dowd · AUB
25 MIN · 2 PTSTahaad Pettiford · AUB
STAT · 25 MIN · 26 PTS · 8-16 FG · 3-5 3PTEren Banks · APP
STAT · 31 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-15 FG · 3-9 3PTJaylen Colon · APP
STAT · 36 MIN · 11 PTS · 3-12 FG · 3-11 3PTAdam Olsen · AUB
STAT · 21 MIN · 9 PTS · 3-7 FG · 3-7 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
App State vs Auburn pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is APP +23.5, with a 57% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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