SE Louisiana Lions at Auburn Tigers
Final · SECN+
59–92Last shot · Jackson Furman misses 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected SELA 64.12–87.38 AUB
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 5:24 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 265061427
- Winner: Auburn (98%)
- Spread: SELA +26.5 covers (61%)
- Total: Under 151.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)10
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SELA 64.12–87.38 AUB · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseAUB +0.0 off · SELA +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to AUB
- Market priorBlended 86% toward AUB -29.5 / total 149.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SELA | 25 | 34 | 59 |
| AUB | 42 | 50 | 92 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:2551–79
Tahaad Pettiford makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:0751–80
Tahaad Pettiford makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:0751–81
Tahaad Pettiford makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:3954–81
Jackson Furman makes 25-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2154–84
Kevin Overton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tahaad Pettiford assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5154–87
Thomas Dowd makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Overton assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 2:2456–87
Garrett Shoemaker makes 0-foot tip in layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4256–90
Kevin Overton makes 23-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 1:2357–90
Haki Muhammad II makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2158–90
Ashley Sims II makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2159–90
Ashley Sims II makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:5659–92
Caleb Williams makes 4-foot dunk (Simon Walker assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SELA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G. Shoemaker F · #32 | 20 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
 Y. Ndjonga F · #23 | 18 | 13 | 5-12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
 L. Suber G · #0 | 27 | 9 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 3-7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
 T. Rolison G · #3 | 32 | 6 | 2-9 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 Q. Allen G · #8 | 26 | 16 | 5-12 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 JJ Massaquoi F · #5 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 A. Sims II F · #2 | 23 | 3 | 0-6 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
 D. Akoue C · #10 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 H. Muhammad II G · #11 | 8 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Furman G · #1 | 19 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 G. Sanford G · #9 | 14 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
 T. Bailey G · #4 | 7 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 P. Jimenez G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Perry G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Al-Naziat G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Nyam G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 59 | 20-67 | 8-33 | 11-19 | 37 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 19 | 25 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SELA | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 20-67 | 32-63 |
| FG% | 30 | 51 |
| 3PT | 8-33 | 12-26 |
| 3P% | 24 | 46 |
| FT | 11-19 | 16-27 |
| FT% | 58 | 59 |
| REB | 37 | 50 |
| OR | 18 | 17 |
| DR | 19 | 33 |
| AST | 9 | 15 |
| STL | 8 | 10 |
| BLK | 2 | 11 |
| TO | 14 | 14 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 14 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 16 | 14 |
| FBPs | 4 | 13 |
| PIP | 22 | 38 |
| PF | 25 | 18 |
| LL | 1 | 34 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 3 | 96 |
At lock SELA 64.12–87.38 AUB · AUB by 23.3 pts vs SELA +26.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissG. Shoemaker · SELA
20 MIN · 2 PTST. Dowd · AUB
27 MIN · 9 PTSTahaad Pettiford · AUB
STAT · 22 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-19 FG · 1-6 3PTQuincy Allen · SELA
STAT · 26 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-12 FG · 4-8 3PTYanis Ndjonga · SELA
STAT · 18 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-12 FG · 3-6 3PTKevin Overton · AUB
STAT · 23 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-5 FG · 4-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
SE Louisiana vs Auburn pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SELA +26.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day