Quinnipiac Bobcats at Vermont Catamounts
Final · ESPN+
79–76Last shot · Gus Yalden misses 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected QUIN 65.14–73.25 UVM
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 8:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 207528074
- Winner: Vermont (73%)
- Score error (both teams)14
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
QUIN 65.14–73.25 UVM · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUVM +9.4 off · QUIN +5.1 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UVM
- RecordUVM 1-2 · QUIN 2-1
- Market priorBlended 70% toward UVM -8.5 / total 138.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| QUIN | 37 | 42 | 79 |
| UVM | 40 | 36 | 76 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:3264–67
Gus Yalden makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:3264–68
Gus Yalden makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 5:1766–68
Nas Hart makes 4-foot alley oop dunk (Tai Turnage assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:0666–70
Will Davies makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:5969–70
Tai Turnage makes 26-foot three point jumper (Lucas Sekasi assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:4169–72
Darrel Yepdo makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:2372–72
Tai Turnage makes 28-foot three point jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:4874–72
Keith McKnight makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:1774–74
Gus Yalden makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:0276–74
Tai Turnage makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4679–74
Lucas Sekasi makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tai Turnage assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3979–76
Darrel Yepdo makes driving layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| QUIN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 N. Hart F · #3 | 22 | 6 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 K. McKnight F · #21 | 36 | 14 | 7-17 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
 H. Pierre-Louis F · #12 | 11 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 T. Cunningham-Pemberton G · #5 | 33 | 8 | 3-12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
 L. Sekasi G · #0 | 36 | 13 | 4-9 | 1-1 | 4-6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
 N. Cholevinskas F · #17 | 8 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 A. Diouf F · #11 | 19 | 12 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
 T. Turnage G · #4 | 25 | 17 | 6-9 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 M. Parrotta G · #24 | 10 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
 C. Skenderi F · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Reid F · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Akinniyi F · #34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Ritvo F · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Fields G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Guerengomba G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 79 | 27-63 | 11-23 | 14-17 | 30 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| QUIN | UVM | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 27-63 | 27-53 |
| FG% | 43 | 51 |
| 3PT | 11-23 | 5-16 |
| 3P% | 48 | 31 |
| FT | 14-17 | 17-25 |
| FT% | 82 | 68 |
| REB | 30 | 37 |
| OR | 11 | 11 |
| DR | 19 | 26 |
| AST | 11 | 10 |
| STL | 4 | 1 |
| BLK | 1 | 1 |
| TO | 2 | 7 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 2 | 7 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 5 | 1 |
| FBPs | 2 | 1 |
| PIP | 28 | 38 |
| PF | 20 | 17 |
| LL | 5 | 9 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 12 | 73 |
At lock QUIN 65.14–73.25 UVM · UVM by 8.1 pts vs QUIN +8.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
HitN. Hart · QUIN
22 MIN · 6 PTSN. Barnett · UVM
35 MIN · 8 PTSGus Yalden · UVM
STAT · 31 MIN · 28 PTS · 10-15 FG · 2-4 3PTTai Turnage · QUIN
STAT · 25 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-9 FG · 5-5 3PTWill Davies · UVM
STAT · 37 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-12 FG · 2-4 3PTKeith McKnight · QUIN
STAT · 36 MIN · 14 PTS · 7-17 FG · 0-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Quinnipiac vs Vermont pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is QUIN +8.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day