NCAABFinalTD Garden

UConn Huskies at Michigan Wolverines

Final · TNT

85–77

UConnMichigan

Final

Last shot · Trey McKenney makes driving layup

UConn Huskies

2-0 · W4

338 PF · 232 PA

Final

Michigan Wolverines

1-1 · W1

245 PF · 223 PA

CONN 71%MICH 29%

At lock: projected CONN 75.54–69.01 MICH

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 4:55 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2338432782

Winner called · off by 17

Most typical sim

CONN 76 – MICH 69

Final

CONN 85 – MICH 77

Winner: UConn (72%)
Spread: MICH +7.5 covers (53%)
Total: Over 144.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)17

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

CONN 75.54–69.01 MICH · Medium confidence

Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MICH +14.0 vs CONN +20.0 · pred margin -6.2
Attack / defense
MICH +11.2 off · CONN +20.6 off, shrunk 11%
Home field
+3.4 pts to MICH
Record
MICH 1-1 · CONN 2-0
Market prior
Blended 71% toward CONN -7.5 / total 142.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	T
CONN	43	42	85
MICH	30	47	77

Scoring plays

FT2nd Half 3:1680–66
Na'jai Hines makes free throw 2 of 2
FT2nd Half 2:1780–67
Roddy Gayle Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
FT2nd Half 2:1780–68
Roddy Gayle Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
FT2nd Half 2:1681–68
Braylon Mullins makes free throw 2 of 2
FT2nd Half 1:5482–68
Braylon Mullins makes free throw 1 of 2
FT2nd Half 1:5483–68
Braylon Mullins makes free throw 2 of 2
JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4383–71
Ricky Liburd makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trey McKenney assists)
DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:3483–73
J.P. Estrella makes 1-foot dunk (Roddy Gayle Jr. assists)
LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1883–75
Roddy Gayle Jr. makes driving layup
FT2nd Half 0:1484–75
Jayden Ross makes free throw 1 of 2
FT2nd Half 0:1485–75
Jayden Ross makes free throw 2 of 2
LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:0585–77
Trey McKenney makes driving layup

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

CONN	MIN	PTS	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	TO	STL	BLK	OREB	DREB	PF
N. Khamenia F · #4	23	7	3-5	1-2	0-0	2	1	3	0	1	0	2	3
Jay. Ross F · #23	30	9	2-6	2-4	3-4	4	0	2	0	0	2	2	2
N. Hines C · #9	22	7	1-2	0-0	5-6	2	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
B. Mullins G · #24	27	23	5-12	3-8	10-11	4	0	1	1	0	0	4	3
S. Demary Jr. G · #5	36	21	7-17	2-4	5-7	7	4	0	2	0	1	6	2
C. Landrew F · #3	22	14	4-8	1-3	5-6	8	2	0	0	0	2	6	4
O. Giltay C · #18	18	2	1-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	2	1	1	1	4
J. County G · #0	17	2	0-3	0-1	2-2	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
N. Machowski G · #21	5	0	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. Amosov F · #17	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Jac. Ross F · #13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
I. Shaw F · #33	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
E. Džafic C · #29	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
J. Nash G · #7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
S. Ball G · #1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Team		85	23-55	9-22	30-36	33	9	12	6	2	9	24	23

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CONN	MICH
FG	23-55	26-63
FG%	42	41
3PT	9-22	7-28
3P%	41	25
FT	30-36	18-23
FT%	83	78
REB	33	35
OR	9	13
DR	24	22
AST	9	13
STL	6	4
BLK	2	1
TO	12	14
TTO	3	0
ToTO	12	14
TECH	2	2
TECH	2	2
FLAG	0	0
PTS OFF TO	16	11
FBPs	12	9
PIP	24	38
PF	23	27
LL	18	2
LC	1	1
LPCT	98	1

Computer pick · Spread

MICH +7.5

52%

At lock CONN 75.54–69.01 MICH · CONN by 6.5 pts vs MICH +7.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

N. Khamenia · CONN
23 MIN · 7 PTS
J.P. Estrella · MICH
33 MIN · 19 PTS
Braylon Mullins · CONN
STAT · 27 MIN · 23 PTS · 5-12 FG · 3-8 3PT
Trey McKenney · MICH
STAT · 36 MIN · 22 PTS · 8-18 FG · 4-9 3PT
Silas Demary Jr. · CONN
STAT · 36 MIN · 21 PTS · 7-17 FG · 2-4 3PT
Roddy Gayle Jr. · MICH
STAT · 31 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-12 FG · 0-3 3PT

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

UConn vs Michigan pick result · Nov 6, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is MICH +7.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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