Central Arkansas Bears at Arkansas Razorbacks
Final · SECN+
66–79Last shot · Camarion Bead misses layup
At lock: projected CARK 69.78–91.62 ARK
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1557011313
- Winner: Arkansas (97%)
- Spread: CARK +25.5 covers (62%)
- Total: Under 161.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CARK 69.78–91.62 ARK · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseARK +3.9 off · CARK +5.5 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ARK
- RecordARK 3-1 · CARK 2-2
- Market priorBlended 83% toward ARK -22.5 / total 161.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CARK | 27 | 39 | 66 |
| ARK | 43 | 36 | 79 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:1360–66
Cole McCormick makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:4860–68
Jordan Smith Jr. makes 8-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:2562–68
Harry Beauchamp makes 13-foot turnaround jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:0762–71
Jeremiah Wilkinson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Billy Richmond III assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:1962–72
Cooper Bowser makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:1962–73
Cooper Bowser makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:2862–75
Billy Richmond III makes 2-foot dunk (Davion Thompson assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3662–77
Cooper Bowser makes layup (Jeremiah Wilkinson assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2064–77
Simm-Marten Saadi makes 9-foot floating jump shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3066–77
Simm-Marten Saadi makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:2066–78
Billy Richmond III makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2066–79
Billy Richmond III makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CARK | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 S. Saadi F · #35 | 23 | 9 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 L. Moore G · #32 | 37 | 12 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 H. Beauchamp G · #9 | 30 | 14 | 5-12 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
 C. McCormick G · #24 | 26 | 9 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
 Ty Robinson G · #12 | 30 | 4 | 2-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
 A. Hoerner F · #54 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Marable F · #25 | 16 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
 T. Anderson F · #23 | 9 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 I. Templeton G · #5 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 C. Bead G · #2 | 3 | 4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 R.J. Young G · #0 | 11 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 J.C. Shulman G · #4 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Marshall G · #3 | 10 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 R.J. Newton G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 O. Dehrmann G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 66 | 25-58 | 8-26 | 8-14 | 30 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CARK | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 25-58 | 29-56 |
| FG% | 43 | 52 |
| 3PT | 8-26 | 9-23 |
| 3P% | 31 | 39 |
| FT | 8-14 | 12-16 |
| FT% | 57 | 75 |
| REB | 30 | 33 |
| OR | 8 | 5 |
| DR | 22 | 28 |
| AST | 14 | 19 |
| STL | 8 | 8 |
| BLK | 1 | 6 |
| TO | 13 | 11 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 16 | 23 |
| FBPs | 5 | 17 |
| PIP | 30 | 38 |
| PF | 16 | 17 |
| LL | 3 | 18 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 5 | 91 |
At lock CARK 69.78–91.62 ARK · ARK by 21.8 pts vs CARK +25.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock · Play of the Day: CARK +25.5 locked at 62% when posted
HitS. Saadi · CARK
23 MIN · 9 PTSM. Muurinen · ARK
20 MIN · 11 PTSBilly Richmond III · ARK
STAT · 36 MIN · 21 PTS · 8-12 FG · 3-3 3PTHarry Beauchamp · CARK
STAT · 30 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-12 FG · 4-9 3PTJeremiah Wilkinson · ARK
STAT · 27 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-14 FG · 4-10 3PTLuke Moore · CARK
STAT · 37 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-9 FG · 0-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
C Arkansas vs Arkansas pick result · Nov 13, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CARK +25.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day