UTEP Miners at Northern Kentucky Norse
Final · YouTube
76–84Last shot · Donovan Criss makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected UTEP 74.80–73.12 NKU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 937569809
- Winner: UTEP (56%)
- Spread: NKU +2.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 148.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)11
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UTEP 74.80–73.12 NKU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseNKU +0.0 off · UTEP +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to NKU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward UTEP -4.5 / total 150.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 38 | 38 | 76 |
| NKU | 42 | 42 | 84 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 1:2668–76
Noah Pagotto makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2668–77
Noah Pagotto makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5568–79
Ryan Tolliver makes layup (Eric Acker assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4571–79
Cam McDaniels makes 27-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:4171–80
Eric Acker makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4171–81
Eric Acker makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3273–81
Youssouf Traore makes layup (Leif Moeller assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:3173–82
Willie Foster makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2175–82
Leif Moeller makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:2075–83
Gabrielius Jokubauskas makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2075–84
Gabrielius Jokubauskas makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1676–84
Donovan Criss makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UTEP | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Y. Traore F · #23 | 26 | 18 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
 A. Cassiá F · #11 | 28 | 10 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
 C. McDaniels G · #5 | 26 | 11 | 4-15 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 L. Moeller G · #6 | 28 | 8 | 3-11 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 R. Miller G · #3 | 25 | 4 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Cason F · #24 | 7 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
 I. Ward F · #18 | 10 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
 R. Jackson Jr. G · #15 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Criss G · #0 | 21 | 13 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 3-8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 J. Whiting G · #21 | 26 | 8 | 2-9 | 2-8 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
 I. Perasovic F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Kelvin II F · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Ratowski F · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Tarpley C · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Jackson G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 76 | 27-70 | 8-30 | 14-24 | 33 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 14 | 19 | 24 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UTEP | NKU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 27-70 | 25-50 |
| FG% | 39 | 50 |
| 3PT | 8-30 | 4-21 |
| 3P% | 27 | 19 |
| FT | 14-24 | 30-33 |
| FT% | 58 | 91 |
| REB | 33 | 39 |
| OR | 14 | 7 |
| DR | 19 | 32 |
| AST | 16 | 10 |
| STL | 6 | 3 |
| BLK | 1 | 2 |
| TO | 7 | 14 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 7 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 16 | 2 |
| FBPs | 1 | 9 |
| PIP | 34 | 38 |
| PF | 24 | 22 |
| LL | 3 | 11 |
| LC | 12 | 12 |
| LPCT | 14 | 85 |
At lock UTEP 74.80–73.12 NKU · UTEP by 1.7 pts vs NKU +2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitY. Traore · UTEP
26 MIN · 18 PTSN. Pagotto · NKU
37 MIN · 19 PTSWillie Foster · NKU
STAT · 35 MIN · 24 PTS · 7-13 FG · 1-5 3PTEric Acker · NKU
STAT · 38 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-12 FG · 0-4 3PTDonovan Criss · UTEP
STAT · 21 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-4 FG · 2-2 3PTCam McDaniels · UTEP
STAT · 26 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-15 FG · 3-9 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
UTEP vs N Kentucky pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NKU +2.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day