Saint Louis Billikens at Missouri Tigers
Final · ESPNU
90–84Last shot · Kennard Davis Jr. makes layup
At lock: projected SLU 79.76–83.68 MIZ
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 4:55 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 723527902
- Winner: Missouri (63%)
- Spread: MIZ -2.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 161.5 (63%)
- Score error (both teams)10
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SLU 79.76–83.68 MIZ · Medium confidence
Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMIZ +14.1 vs SLU +13.3 · pred margin +3.0
- Attack / defenseMIZ +15.5 off · SLU +16.6 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MIZ
- RecordMIZ 1-1 · SLU 2-0
- Market priorBlended 71% toward MIZ -2.5 / total 161.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLU | 49 | 41 | 90 |
| MIZ | 38 | 46 | 84 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:5181–74
Jamier Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:0083–74
Kellen Thames makes layup (Alon Michaeli assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:3483–76
Bryson Tiller makes 11-foot jumper (Mark Mitchell Jr. assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:4483–78
Jamier Jones makes driving layup (Kennard Davis Jr. assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:4785–78
Alon Michaeli makes 3-foot dunk (Quentin Jones assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:4185–79
Jamier Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1387–79
Alon Michaeli makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:4188–79
Alon Michaeli makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4189–79
Alon Michaeli makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3489–82
Bryson Tiller makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jason Crowe Jr. assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:1490–82
Alon Michaeli makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:0390–84
Kennard Davis Jr. makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SLU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Michaeli F · #7 | 25 | 13 | 5-12 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
 I. Sharma F · #9 | 36 | 17 | 6-10 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 A. McCottry G · #4 | 29 | 17 | 7-11 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
 Q. Jones G · #1 | 35 | 14 | 4-11 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
 T. Green G · #3 | 37 | 16 | 6-11 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Kerr F · #15 | 9 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 L. Laczkowski G · #14 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Hutson G · #24 | 11 | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 K. Thames G · #0 | 15 | 8 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
 B. Diakite F · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. White F · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Pearson F · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Strong F · #31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Y. Ahmad G · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Thomas G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Holmes G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 90 | 33-63 | 14-25 | 10-14 | 35 | 24 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SLU | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 33-63 | 29-71 |
| FG% | 52 | 41 |
| 3PT | 14-25 | 8-24 |
| 3P% | 56 | 33 |
| FT | 10-14 | 18-26 |
| FT% | 71 | 69 |
| REB | 35 | 45 |
| OR | 6 | 18 |
| DR | 29 | 27 |
| AST | 24 | 16 |
| STL | 6 | 7 |
| BLK | 2 | 7 |
| TO | 10 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 10 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 15 | 8 |
| FBPs | 17 | 14 |
| PIP | 38 | 36 |
| PF | 18 | 16 |
| LL | 14 | 3 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 97 | 3 |
At lock SLU 79.76–83.68 MIZ · MIZ by 3.9 pts vs MIZ -2.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissA. Michaeli · SLU
25 MIN · 13 PTST. Bryant · MIZ
13 MIN · 1 PTSBryson Tiller · MIZ
STAT · 35 MIN · 26 PTS · 9-18 FG · 5-8 3PTMark Mitchell Jr. · MIZ
STAT · 32 MIN · 21 PTS · 8-11 FG · 1-1 3PTIshan Sharma · SLU
STAT · 36 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-10 FG · 3-7 3PTAmari McCottry · SLU
STAT · 29 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-11 FG · 2-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Saint Louis vs Missouri pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MIZ -2.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day