Siena Saints at Dayton Flyers
Final · ESPN+
99–89Last shot · Amal L'Etang makes 1-foot dunk
At lock: projected SIE 73.85–85.18 DAY
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 5:30 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3999419169
- Winner: Dayton (84%)
- Spread: SIE +12.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 158.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)29
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SIE 73.85–85.18 DAY · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseDAY +9.3 off · SIE +9.2 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to DAY
- RecordDAY 1-2 · SIE 2-1
- Market priorBlended 84% toward DAY -14.5 / total 158.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SIE | 46 | 53 | 99 |
| DAY | 45 | 44 | 89 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:0090–84
Tristian Ford makes 6-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:5691–84
Pace Prosser makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5692–84
Pace Prosser makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4293–84
Trent Egbiremolen makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4294–84
Trent Egbiremolen makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3894–87
Tristian Ford makes 27-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:3495–87
Tan Yildizoglu makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2696–87
Trent Egbiremolen makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2697–87
Trent Egbiremolen makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1398–87
Pace Prosser makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1399–87
Pace Prosser makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:0599–89
Amal L'Etang makes 1-foot dunk
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SIE | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 P. Prosser G · #22 | 40 | 17 | 6-15 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 T. Ibukunoluwa G · #13 | 36 | 23 | 8-16 | 0-4 | 7-8 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
 T. Egbiremolen G · #5 | 28 | 20 | 4-12 | 0-3 | 12-12 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
 B. Coyle G · #21 | 32 | 21 | 6-10 | 6-9 | 3-5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
 R. Ducharme G · #12 | 30 | 11 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 A. Amon G · #9 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 P. Edmond Jr. G · #3 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 T. Yildizoglu G · #30 | 26 | 7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
 P. Lambert G · #94 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Y. Steger G · #77 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Martin G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Bratakos G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Roberson G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 O. Schlager G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Henderson G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Torres G · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 99 | 30-67 | 11-31 | 28-33 | 37 | 16 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 23 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SIE | DAY | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 30-67 | 36-66 |
| FG% | 45 | 55 |
| 3PT | 11-31 | 11-30 |
| 3P% | 35 | 37 |
| FT | 28-33 | 6-12 |
| FT% | 85 | 50 |
| REB | 37 | 37 |
| OR | 14 | 11 |
| DR | 23 | 26 |
| AST | 16 | 23 |
| STL | 14 | 7 |
| BLK | 0 | 9 |
| TO | 9 | 18 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 9 | 18 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 20 | 12 |
| FBPs | 9 | 19 |
| PIP | 36 | 48 |
| PF | 16 | 22 |
| LL | 12 | 6 |
| LC | 15 | 15 |
| LPCT | 73 | 19 |
At lock SIE 73.85–85.18 DAY · DAY by 11.3 pts vs SIE +12.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitP. Prosser · SIE
40 MIN · 17 PTSG. Randall · DAY
34 MIN · 7 PTSAiden Derkack · DAY
STAT · 34 MIN · 25 PTS · 9-13 FG · 1-2 3PTTim Ibukunoluwa · SIE
STAT · 36 MIN · 23 PTS · 8-16 FG · 0-4 3PTBrendan Coyle · SIE
STAT · 32 MIN · 21 PTS · 6-10 FG · 6-9 3PTTristian Ford · DAY
STAT · 30 MIN · 21 PTS · 8-8 FG · 5-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Siena vs Dayton pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SIE +12.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day