Youngstown State Penguins at Central Michigan Chippewas
Final · ESPN+
78–91Last shot · Jake Bascom misses 4-foot floating jump shot
At lock: projected YSU 74.20–78.72 CMU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 5:30 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1514671985
- Winner: C Michigan (66%)
- Spread: CMU -3.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 152.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)16
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
YSU 74.20–78.72 CMU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseCMU +11.0 off · YSU +7.4 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to CMU
- RecordCMU 3-0 · YSU 1-2
- Market priorBlended 84% toward CMU -3.5 / total 152.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| YSU | 34 | 44 | 78 |
| CMU | 50 | 41 | 91 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 6:4272–82
Jaiden Haynes makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:4172–84
Phat Phat Brooks makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Keenan Garner assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:2874–84
Dom Aekins makes 13-foot floating jump shot
- FT2nd Half 4:5374–85
Conrad Luczynski makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:3174–87
Conrad Luczynski makes 5-foot floating jump shot
- FT2nd Half 4:1875–87
Jaiden Haynes makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:1876–87
Jaiden Haynes makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:5676–88
Keenan Garner makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:1476–89
Jalen Kampen makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:1476–90
Jalen Kampen makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2576–91
Phat Phat Brooks makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1178–91
Jermaine Coleman makes driving layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| YSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 K. Amoako C · #2 | 25 | 9 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3-10 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
 J. Haynes G · #8 | 36 | 15 | 5-6 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 D. Aekins G · #7 | 27 | 12 | 6-11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
 L. Holmstrom G · #4 | 29 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Nwankwo G · #3 | 28 | 15 | 4-10 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
 J. Moupadele F · #59 | 15 | 8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
 J. Coleman F · #1 | 12 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 K. Destin G · #5 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Tyler G · #0 | 14 | 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 J. Livingston G · #20 | 9 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 E. Summers-Livingston F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Lokhmanchuk F · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Spurlock G · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Adcock-Vidouria G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 78 | 27-50 | 7-21 | 17-30 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| YSU | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 27-50 | 30-51 |
| FG% | 54 | 59 |
| 3PT | 7-21 | 5-10 |
| 3P% | 33 | 50 |
| FT | 17-30 | 26-34 |
| FT% | 57 | 76 |
| REB | 20 | 29 |
| OR | 4 | 6 |
| DR | 16 | 23 |
| AST | 14 | 9 |
| STL | 6 | 4 |
| BLK | 0 | 2 |
| TO | 12 | 11 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 12 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 15 | 17 |
| FBPs | 10 | 7 |
| PIP | 34 | 42 |
| PF | 23 | 19 |
| LL | 9 | 19 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 31 | 68 |
At lock YSU 74.20–78.72 CMU · CMU by 4.5 pts vs CMU -3.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitK. Amoako · YSU
25 MIN · 9 PTSK. Garner · CMU
26 MIN · 13 PTSPhat Phat Brooks · CMU
STAT · 32 MIN · 22 PTS · 7-11 FG · 1-1 3PTJaiden Haynes · YSU
STAT · 36 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-6 FG · 0-1 3PTJeff Nwankwo · YSU
STAT · 28 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-10 FG · 4-7 3PTJalen Kampen · CMU
STAT · 26 MIN · 13 PTS · 3-5 FG · 1-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Youngstown St vs C Michigan pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CMU -3.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day