Indiana State Sycamores at Ball State Cardinals
Final · ESPN+
69–66Last shot · K'Jei Parker misses 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected INST 72.05–74.68 BALL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 4:55 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1514819080
- Winner: Ball State (60%)
- Spread: BALL -2.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 147.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
INST 72.05–74.68 BALL · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseBALL +14.7 off · INST +19.5 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to BALL
- RecordBALL 0-2 · INST 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward BALL -1.5 / total 146.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| INST | 32 | 37 | 69 |
| BALL | 37 | 29 | 66 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 6:5957–62
Chance Puryear makes 23-foot three point jumper (Duce Paschal assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:3260–62
Karmani Gregory makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
- FT2nd Half 4:3861–62
Duce Paschal makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:3862–62
Duce Paschal makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:5564–62
Maguire Mitchell makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 1:5664–63
Javion Guy-King makes free throw 1 of 2
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 1:3266–63
Jackson Cooper makes 0-foot tip in layup
- FT2nd Half 1:1866–64
Javion Guy-King makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3866–65
Mason Jones makes free throw 1 of 2
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 0:0968–65
Jackson Cooper makes 0-foot tip in layup
- FT2nd Half 0:0468–66
Javion Guy-King makes free throw 3 of 3
- FT2nd Half 0:0369–66
Karmani Gregory makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| INST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Calamita F · #45 | 12 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
 J. Cooper F · #35 | 28 | 12 | 5-11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
 M. Mitchell G · #13 | 35 | 6 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
 EJ McQuillan G · #1 | 17 | 6 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 K. Gregory G · #7 | 35 | 20 | 5-13 | 2-4 | 8-10 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 K. Speckman F · #32 | 8 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 A. Vlajic F · #15 | 9 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
 I. Thomas G · #23 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Paschal G · #9 | 18 | 8 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
 M. White G · #2 | 14 | 7 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 C. Puryear G · #5 | 24 | 8 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 K. Land F · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 G. Pritzl G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Denson II G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Kaupanger G · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 EJ Hazelett III G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 69 | 22-55 | 8-17 | 17-23 | 36 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| INST | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-55 | 24-54 |
| FG% | 40 | 44 |
| 3PT | 8-17 | 3-16 |
| 3P% | 47 | 19 |
| FT | 17-23 | 15-26 |
| FT% | 74 | 58 |
| REB | 36 | 36 |
| OR | 11 | 11 |
| DR | 25 | 25 |
| AST | 10 | 7 |
| STL | 7 | 6 |
| BLK | 0 | 2 |
| TO | 14 | 14 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 14 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 15 | 12 |
| FBPs | 9 | 0 |
| PIP | 28 | 30 |
| PF | 22 | 22 |
| LL | 10 | 15 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 47 | 49 |
At lock INST 72.05–74.68 BALL · 0.8 pts under 147.5 · 49% is the confidence saved at lock
HitA. Calamita · INST
12 MIN · 0-1 FGB. Durodola · BALL
10 MIN · 2 PTSKarmani Gregory · INST
STAT · 35 MIN · 20 PTS · 5-13 FG · 2-4 3PTSean Blake · BALL
STAT · 34 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-15 FG · 0-1 3PTJavion Guy-King · BALL
STAT · 28 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-8 FG · 1-4 3PTJackson Cooper · INST
STAT · 28 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-11 FG · 2-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Indiana St vs Ball State pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 147.5, with a 49% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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