Buffalo Bulls at Marshall Thundering Herd
Final · ESPN+
65–92Last shot · Antoine Lorick III misses 29-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected BUF 75.53–78.28 MRSH
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 271874455
- Winner: Marshall (60%)
- Spread: MRSH -2.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 157.5 (69%)
- Score error (both teams)24
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
BUF 75.53–78.28 MRSH · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMRSH +0.0 off · BUF +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MRSH
- Market priorBlended 72% toward MRSH -2.5 / total 155.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 24 | 41 | 65 |
| MRSH | 45 | 47 | 92 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:2251–81
Bryce Slay makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:1052–81
Antoine Lorick III makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:5752–84
Fazl Oshodi makes 24-foot three point jumper (Emmanuel Manyuon assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:4654–84
Drew Steffe makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:2456–84
Antoine Lorick III makes layup
- FT2nd Half 4:2457–84
Antoine Lorick III makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:0060–84
Matas Buteliauskas makes 26-foot three point jumper (J.J. Starling assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:3563–84
J.J. Starling makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dylan Ducommun assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:2363–87
Fazl Oshodi makes 23-foot three point jumper (Emmanuel Manyuon assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0365–87
Drew Steffe makes 10-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2165–90
Emmanuel Manyuon makes 25-foot three point jumper (Noah Otshudi assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 0:5165–92
Emmanuel Manyuon makes 0-foot tip in layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| BUF | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Lorick III F · #9 | 37 | 28 | 9-18 | 1-7 | 9-13 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 2 |
 D. Ducommun G · #25 | 28 | 9 | 3-13 | 1-9 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 M. Tyne G · #10 | 25 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 D. Steffe G · #21 | 37 | 19 | 8-14 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 J.J. Starling G · #2 | 32 | 4 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 B. John F · #5 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Buteliauskas F · #0 | 10 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Pitre F · #1 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 K. Jones G · #12 | 8 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
 JJ Frakes G · #22 | 15 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 T. Kuska F · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Vigo G · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Romano G · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Shao G · #20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 H. Reede G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 65 | 23-62 | 5-27 | 14-21 | 31 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BUF | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-62 | 34-63 |
| FG% | 37 | 54 |
| 3PT | 5-27 | 11-26 |
| 3P% | 19 | 42 |
| FT | 14-21 | 13-19 |
| FT% | 67 | 68 |
| REB | 31 | 41 |
| OR | 6 | 7 |
| DR | 25 | 34 |
| AST | 7 | 17 |
| STL | 8 | 6 |
| BLK | 6 | 2 |
| TO | 10 | 11 |
| TTO | 0 | 2 |
| ToTO | 10 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 5 | 15 |
| FBPs | 13 | 14 |
| PIP | 32 | 42 |
| PF | 17 | 17 |
| LL | 0 | 34 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock BUF 75.53–78.28 MRSH · 3.7 pts under 157.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitA. Lorick III · BUF
37 MIN · 28 PTSC. Langdon · MRSH
18 MIN · 3 PTSEmmanuel Manyuon · MRSH
STAT · 34 MIN · 22 PTS · 9-12 FG · 4-5 3PTDrew Steffe · BUF
STAT · 37 MIN · 19 PTS · 8-14 FG · 1-4 3PTBryce Slay · MRSH
STAT · 33 MIN · 19 PTS · 8-12 FG · 1-2 3PTNoah Otshudi · MRSH
STAT · 33 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-11 FG · 2-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Buffalo vs Marshall pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 157.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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