Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at Xavier Musketeers
Final · ESPN+
52–97Last shot · Ryan Brzezanski misses 24-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected MSM 65.77–89.03 XAV
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1661006144
- Winner: Xavier (98%)
- Spread: MSM +26.5 covers (62%)
- Total: Under 156.5 (59%)
- Score error (both teams)22
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MSM 65.77–89.03 XAV · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseXAV +0.0 off · MSM +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to XAV
- Market priorBlended 86% toward XAV -26.5 / total 158.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSM | 16 | 36 | 52 |
| XAV | 51 | 46 | 97 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1748–85
Anthony Arrington Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anastasios Rozakeas assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5350–85
Cade Orness makes layup (Crue Gard assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:4550–86
Kalek House makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:4550–87
Kalek House makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:1850–89
Chance Westry makes layup
- FT2nd Half 2:1251–89
Cade Orness makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:5951–91
Gabriel Pozzato makes layup
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 1:3751–93
Kason Westphal makes 0-foot tip in dunk
- FT2nd Half 1:2852–93
Anastasios Rozakeas makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:1652–94
Kason Westphal makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:1452–95
Kason Westphal makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4652–97
Gedeon Basson makes layup (Kason Westphal assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MSM | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 N. Limol F · #12 | 13 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
 W. Exacte F · #7 | 29 | 12 | 5-14 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
 A. Khadre Kebe G · #9 | 26 | 13 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
 A. Arrington Jr. G · #30 | 24 | 7 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 R. Thompson Jr. G · #2 | 28 | 5 | 1-14 | 0-7 | 3-5 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 C. Gard F · #16 | 10 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 R. Brzezanski F · #11 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 M. Llompart G · #22 | 8 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Smith G · #3 | 16 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 N. Rogers G · #5 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Hartman G · #6 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 C. Orness G · #10 | 19 | 8 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 A. Rozakeas G · #1 | 19 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 Y. Diop F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Joyce F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. So G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 52 | 19-65 | 3-26 | 11-18 | 33 | 13 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MSM | XAV | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 19-65 | 35-70 |
| FG% | 29 | 50 |
| 3PT | 3-26 | 11-31 |
| 3P% | 12 | 35 |
| FT | 11-18 | 16-26 |
| FT% | 61 | 62 |
| REB | 33 | 56 |
| OR | 12 | 19 |
| DR | 21 | 37 |
| AST | 13 | 26 |
| STL | 11 | 14 |
| BLK | 4 | 6 |
| TO | 19 | 17 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 19 | 17 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 27 |
| FBPs | 8 | 29 |
| PIP | 24 | 48 |
| PF | 23 | 19 |
| LL | 0 | 47 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 97 |
At lock MSM 65.77–89.03 XAV · XAV by 23.3 pts vs MSM +26.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissN. Limol · MSM
13 MIN · 4 PTSF. Borovicanin · XAV
24 MIN · 8 PTSChance Westry · XAV
STAT · 19 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-9 FG · 0-2 3PTJovan Milicevic · XAV
STAT · 21 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-9 FG · 3-5 3PTAbdou Khadre Kebe · MSM
STAT · 26 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-11 FG · 1-4 3PTWilguens Jr. Exacte · MSM
STAT · 29 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-14 FG · 1-6 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Mount St Marys vs Xavier pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MSM +26.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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