Mercyhurst Lakers at Marquette Golden Eagles
Final · ESPN+
43–78Last shot · Markus Maxwell-Grimes makes 14-foot pullup jump shot
At lock: projected MERC 60.18–86.88 MARQ
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3993389375
- Winner: Marquette (99%)
- Spread: MERC +30.5 covers (63%)
- Total: Under 147.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)26
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MERC 60.18–86.88 MARQ · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMARQ +0.0 off · MERC +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MARQ
- Market priorBlended 86% toward MARQ -31.5 / total 146.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MERC | 14 | 29 | 43 |
| MARQ | 36 | 42 | 78 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:1329–71
Jake Lemelman makes 8-foot pullup jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4532–71
Markus Maxwell-Grimes makes 27-foot three point jumper (Geoff Sprouse assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:3032–73
Nash Walker makes driving layup (Ian Miletic assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1535–73
Cameron Johnson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Geoff Sprouse assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:0135–75
Alex Egbuonu makes driving layup (Nash Walker assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:3036–75
Hunter Te Ratana makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3037–75
Hunter Te Ratana makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:2037–77
Joshua Clark makes layup (Ethan Johnston assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:5339–77
Hunter Te Ratana makes 1-foot dunk (Shane Kirker assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2941–77
Chris Leman makes 10-foot hook shot
- FT2nd Half 0:1541–78
Braeden Brenn makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0043–78
Markus Maxwell-Grimes makes 14-foot pullup jump shot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MERC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Johnson F · #3 | 23 | 6 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 D. Agbaosi F · #23 | 22 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
 G. Sprouse G | 27 | 2 | 1-8 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 Or Faran G · #32 | 23 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 J. Lemelman G · #11 | 32 | 16 | 6-15 | 2-8 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 S. Kirker F · #0 | 23 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 C. Leman F · #13 | 10 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
H H. Te Ratana G · #5 | 25 | 8 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 M. Maxwell-Grimes G · #1 | 15 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 T. Rainwater F · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
S S. Sakihama G · #17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Conner G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Kelly G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Jackson G · #44 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Pierce NA · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 43 | 17-58 | 4-27 | 5-7 | 26 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MERC | MARQ | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 17-58 | 29-60 |
| FG% | 29 | 48 |
| 3PT | 4-27 | 4-21 |
| 3P% | 15 | 19 |
| FT | 5-7 | 16-26 |
| FT% | 71 | 62 |
| REB | 26 | 49 |
| OR | 13 | 20 |
| DR | 13 | 29 |
| AST | 8 | 23 |
| STL | 9 | 9 |
| BLK | 4 | 9 |
| TO | 17 | 11 |
| TTO | 3 | 0 |
| ToTO | 17 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 16 |
| FBPs | 6 | 9 |
| PIP | 16 | 50 |
| PF | 16 | 10 |
| LL | 0 | 44 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock MERC 60.18–86.88 MARQ · MARQ by 26.7 pts vs MERC +30.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissC. Johnson · MERC
23 MIN · 6 PTSS. Fru · MARQ
23 MIN · 12 PTSJoshua Clark · MARQ
STAT · 17 MIN · 18 PTS · 8-9 FG · 2-4 FTJake Lemelman · MERC
STAT · 32 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-15 FG · 2-8 3PTRoyce Parham · MARQ
STAT · 20 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-9 FG · 1-2 3PTHunter Te Ratana · MERC
STAT · 25 MIN · 8 PTS · 3-8 FG · 0-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Mercyhurst vs Marquette pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MERC +30.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day